Mapping the Future of Green Hydrogen: Integrated Analysis of Poland and the EU’s Development Pathways to 2050

Abstract

This article presents the results of a comparative scenario analysis of the “green hydrogen” development pathways in Poland and the EU in the 2050 perspective. We prepared the scenarios by linking three models: two sectoral models for the power and transport sectors, and a Computable General Equilibrium model (d-Place). The basic precondition for the large-scale use of hydrogen, in both Poland and in European Union countries, is the pursuit of ambitious greenhouse gas reduction targets. The EU plans indicate that the main source of hydrogen will be renewable energy (RES). “Green hydrogen” is seen as one of the main methods with which to balance energy supply from intermittent RES, such as solar and wind. The questions that arise concern the amount of hydrogen required to meet the energy needs in Poland and Europe in decarbonized sectors of the economy, and to what extent can demand be covered by internal production. In the article, we estimated the potential of the production of “green hydrogen”, derived from electrolysis, for different scenarios of the development of the electricity sector in Poland and the EU. For 2050, it ranges from 76 to 206 PJ/y (Poland) and from 4449 to 5985 PJ/y (EU+). The role of hydrogen as an energy storage was also emphasized, highlighting its use in the process of stabilizing the electric power system. Hydrogen usage in the energy sector is projected to range from 67 to 76 PJ/y for Poland and from 1066 to 1601 PJ/y for EU+ by 2050. Depending on the scenario, this implies that between 25% and 35% of green hydrogen will be used in the power sector as a long-term energy storage.

The use of hydrogen as a fuel in road transport on the Polish path to climate neutrality - a literature review

“…Energy storage may be one of the critical points of the hydrogen strategy, as the efficient development of storage facilities using hydrogen or its production at renewable energy sources may be an important factor supporting the regulation of the national power system. The potential of using hydrogen as a fuel was also noticed in the articles of Horváth et al [2023], Szałek et al [2021 and Tatarewicz et al [2023], in which simulations were carried out regarding using hydrogen as a fuel in transport. The articles clearly show that hydrogen will be the primary fuel for transport.…”

The urgency of hydrogen: environmental issues and the need for change

“…Its versatility and potential for renewable production enable diversification of energy sources, reducing the dependence on a single energy sector or fuel type. This diversification strengthens energy resilience and helps mitigate the risks associated with supply disruptions or fluctuations in specific energy markets [18]. Additionally, the transition to a hydrogen economy has the potential to stimulate economic growth and create new employment opportunities.…”

“…However, several challenges need to be addressed for the transition to a hydrogen economy. These include the development of cost-effective and efficient hydrogen production methods, the establishment of an extensive infrastructure for hydrogen storage, transportation, and distribution, and the need for supportive policies and regulations to foster market growth and investment in hydrogen technologies [18].…”

“…Figure 5. Projected production of hydrogen [18] As countries recognize the advantages that come with hydrogen utilization, the development and deployment of hydrogen technologies will start to play a significant role in shaping a more secure, sustainable, and prosperous future [20].…”

“…The roadmap also mentioned electricity production by 2024. A projected amount of 15 GW of electricity should be produced by hydrogen by this time [18].…”