Marine traffic risk modelling – an innovative approach and a case study

Abstract

This paper presents a model to analyse the risk of two common marine accidents: collision and grounding. Attention is focused on oil tankers since they pose the highest environmental risks. A case study in selected areas of the Gulf of Finland in ice-free conditions is presented. The model utilizes a formula for risk calculation that considers both the probability of an unwanted event and its consequences. The model can be decomposed into a block representation in which blocks for the probability of a collision, probability of a grounding event, and the consequences of an accident are linked. The probability of vessel colliding is assessed in terms of a minimum-distance-to-collision-based model. The model defines the collision zone using a mathematical ship motion model and considers the traffic flow to be a non-homogeneous process. Calculations are performed using data for traffic flows in the Gulf of Finland with particular attention being paid to the crossing of the channel used by scheduled ferries between Helsinki and Tallinn, and the main shipping channel. For the assessment of a grounding probability, a new approach is proposed, which utilizes a gravitylike model, where a ship and navigational obstructions are perceived as interacting objects and their repulsion is modelled by a formulation inspired by gravitational force. The considered situation in this case is the movement of oil tankers in the approach channel to an oil terminal at Sköldvik, near Helsinki. The consequences of an accident are expressed in monetary terms, and concern the costs of cleaning up an oil spill, based on the statistics of compensation levels claimed from the International Oil Pollution Compensation Fund.

Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues

“…Determine expected oil spill costs due to maritime accidents in a sea area [86] Risk is defined as the product of the probability of occurrence of an undesirable event and the expected consequences (p. 91) 2011 D1…”

An Improved Ship Collision Risk Evaluation Method for Korea Maritime Safety Audit Considering Traffic Flow Characteristics

“…To mention a few, on the one hand, Fujii and Tanaka, Goodwin, Coldwell, Hansen et al, and Wang and Chin studied empirical ship domain models [12][13][14][15][16]; on the other hand, Zhu et al, Pietrzykowski and Uriasz, and Dinh and Im researched knowledge-based ship domain models [17][18][19][20]. Other authors such as Montewka et al, Davis et al, Wang et al, Rawson et al, and Liu et al have studied analysis-based ship domain models [21][22][23][24][25][26][27]. The International Association of Marine Aids to Navigation and Lighthouse Authorities (IALA) Waterway Risk Assessment Program (IWRAP), which is used as a maritime traffic evaluation tool, is a representative evaluation method that quantitatively calculates collision probability based on statistical data of vessels.…”

Data Analysis, Simulation and Visualization for Environmentally Safe Maritime Data

“…Some interesting research in the field of simulation of marine traffic is presented in [14]. A probabilistic model is used to analyze the risk of two frequent types of marine accidents, such as collision and grounding.…”