Markov Chain and Techno-Economic Analysis to Identify the Commercial Potential of New Technology: A Case Study of Motorcycle in Surakarta, Indonesia

Abstract

LiFePhO4 (lithium iron phosphate) batteries, with their advantages compared to common current motorcycle batteries, are considered as an alternative in substituting wet and dry cell battery. The huge demand for motorcycles along with their batteries in Indonesia also make them an interesting product for business. To assess the commercial potential for such a new technology, market share needs to be estimated as well as the techno-economic feasibility. Hence, market share prediction using the residents of Surakarta Region and techno-economic analysis using Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Payback Period (PP) indicators were conducted in this study. Calculations using Markov chain method show that lithium iron phosphate batteries tend to dominate the market after certain period. Techno-economic analysis also finds that the commercialization is feasible in three conditions: first mover, even with market leader and equilibrium point. Therefore, there is a great commercial potential for lithium iron phosphate batteries, especially in Indonesia.

Sustainability Evaluation of Internal Combustion Engine Motorcycle to Electric Motorcycle Conversion

“…The battery used in this research is Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) battery. The LFP battery is more durable than the lead-acid battery 9) . The limitations of using electric motorcycle conversion is the consumer very dependent on the battery and the charging station is not ready in Indonesia.…”

“…It is needed to convince them to switch their ICE motorcycles to electric motorcycles. Some evaluation has been presented, such as Sutopo et al 9) that studied about techno economic analysis of battery lithium, Fam and Lim 10) that discussed techno economic analysis of a Combined Heat and Power Unit (CHP), Mendu et al 11) that studied techno economic analysis of integrated energy systems between stand-alone and grid-connected in India, and Mostafa and Sarhan that explained e-waste recycling facility feasibility study from economic aspect in Egypt 12) . The aim of this research is not only to look from an economic aspect but also from the social aspect and environmental aspect as called the sustainability aspect 13) .…”

Rapid Prediction Algorithm for Economic Development Trend of Tourism Using Markov Chain

“…Moreover, the novel research on the rationalization of tourism and utilization of the advantages of rural resources can promote the link between rural tourism and rural revitalization and promote long-term rural development. Simultaneously, policy support will be provided for the popularization of the paid vacation system, the increase in tourism consumption demand, and the establishment of a tourism consumption credit system to effectively promote high-quality tourism development and realize people's aspirations for a better life [36][37][38][39].…”