Mass extinctions over the last 500 myr: an astronomical cause?

Abstract

A Fourier analysis of the magnitudes and timing of the Phanerozoic mass extinctions (MEs) demonstrates that many of the periodicities claimed in other analyses are not statistically significant. Moreover we show that the periodicities associated with oscillations of the Solar System about the galactic plane are too irregular to give narrow peaks in the Fourier periodograms. This leads us to conclude that, apart from possibly a small number of major events, astronomical causes for MEs can largely be ruled out.

Periodicity in extinction rates

“…As in our previous publication (Erlykin et al . ) and that of Melott & Bambach (), we use the time series of extinctions from the work of Bambach () and Melott & Bambach (, , , ). For the analysis described here, the data were selected within the 0–465 Ma range.…”

“…As in our previous publication (Erlykin et al . ), as well as treating the real data, we pass randomly generated data sets through software written by us in Fortran 77. The random data sets were generated by the Monte Carlo technique.…”

“…They focused mainly on the statistical significance of the observed peak, claiming a higher statistical significance than we deduced in Erlykin et al . (). Moreover, they challenged our study on a number of grounds.…”

“…In the light of a series of recent studies, essentially reviving the exciting discoveries of the 1980s, our paper (Erlykin et al . ) sought to present an alternative view. In that paper, we showed that the oscillation of the Solar System about the galactic plane is probably too variable in time to account for the possibly observed periodicity of 27 myr.…”

Ciclos climáticos e causas naturais das mudanças do clima

“…Em publicações recentes, persistem alegações divergentes: de um lado, Rampino & Caldeira (2015) alegam que a hipótese dos impactos continua viável; de outro lado, para Erlykin et al (2017), as causas astronômi-cas podem ser largamente descartadas e, para Bond & Grasby (2017), o vulcanismo em grande escala seria o principal motor de extinções em massa. Apesar de algumas hipóteses e observações sobre as causas das mega-extinções, o tema permanece, entretanto, uma questão ainda controversa e em constante debate no âmbito científico.…”