Mass Vaccine Administration under Uncertain Supply Scenarios

Abstract

The insurgence of COVID-19 requires fast mass vaccination, hampered by scarce availability and uncertain supply of vaccine doses and a tight schedule for boosters. In this paper, we analyze planning strategies for the vaccination campaign to vaccinate as many people as possible while meeting the booster schedule. We compare a conservative strategy and q-days-ahead strategies against the clairvoyant strategy. The conservative strategy achieves the best trade-off between utilization and compliance with the booster schedule. Q-days-ahead strategies with q < 7 provide a larger utilization but run out of stock in over 30% of days.