Mathematical Modeling and a Month Ahead Forecast of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic: An Indian Scenario

Abstract

India, the second-most populous country in the world, has been lately witnessing a daily surge in the COVID-19 infected cases. India is currently among the worst-hit nations worldwide, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and ranks just behind Brazil and USA. In order to prevent the further worsening of the situation, predicting the future course of the pandemic is of utmost importance. In this paper, we model the past trajectory (March 01, 2020 - July 25, 2020) and make a month-long (July 26, 2020 - August 24, 2020) forecast of the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in India using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. According to our forecasting results, India is likely to have 3,800,989 cumulative infected cases, 1,634,142 cumulative active cases, 2,110,697 cumulative recoveries and 56,150 cumulative deaths by August 24, 2020, if the current trend of the pandemic continues to prevail. The implications of these forecasts are that in the upcoming month the infection rate of COVID-19 in India is going to escalate, while as the rate of recovery and the case-fatality rate is likely to reduce. In order to avert these possible scenarios, the administration and health-care personnel need to formulate and implement robust control measures, while the general public needs to be more responsible and strictly adhere to the established and newly formulated guidelines to slow down the spread of the pandemic and prevent it from transforming into a catastrophe.

A Novel Honey Badger Algorithm with Multilayer Perceptron for Forecasting COVID-19 Time Series Data

“…The r3, r4, and r5 generated within an interval of [0,1] and are random number. F represents a flag that exchanged the direction of the search, and identified by (10):…”

Impact of COVID-19 outbreak on tropospheric NO2 pollution assessed using Satellite-ground perspectives observations in India

“…Air pollution can be referred to as the release of pollutants into the air that may be injurious to the people’s health as well as the environment. Some ground-based studies found that national lockdown by the COVID-19 outbreak condition has slowed down the air pollution process all over the world (Halder et al 2021 ; Ganiny and Nisar 2021 ). The first report of COVID-19 outbreak recorded in Wuhan, China and affirmed as anthroponoses causing difficulty breathing, aches and pains and SARS (WHO 2020 ).…”