Mathematical modeling and assessment of barrier measures and temperature on the transmission and persistence of Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Abstract

In December 2019, human cases of novel coronavirus infection were detected in Wuhan, China which have been named as COVID-19 by the World Health Organization (WHO). Since COVID-19 was first detected in China, the virus has reached more than 120 countries and was declared a global pandemic on March 11, 2020 by the WHO. In this paper, we have highlighted the influence of temperature on the spread of COVID-19. For this, the dynamic transmission of COVID-19 is modeled taking into account the influence of the temperature on the persistence of coronavirus in the environment. We also took into account the impact of proportion of people who respect the barrier measures published by the WHO on the scale of the COVID-19 pandemic. Taking into account the influence of the temperature on the persistence of the virus in the environment, the dynamic transmission has been described by a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). First, we analyzed the solutions of system in the case where the impact of the temperature on the virus is neglected. Second, we carried out the mathematical analysis of the solutions of the system in the non-autonomous case. Mathematical analyzes have enabled us to establish that the temperature and proportion of persons who respect the barrier rules can affect the spread of COVID-19. Some numerical simulations have been proposed to illustrate the behavior of the pandemic in some countries.