Mathematical modeling of chickenpox in Phuket: Efficacy of precautionary measures and bifurcation analysis

Jose, Sayooj Aby; Raja, R.; Dianavinnarasi, J.; Băleanu, Dumitru; Jirawattanapanit, Anuwat

doi:10.1016/j.bspc.2023.104714

Cited by 14 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…More than 6.58 million lives were already lost. In addition to COVID-19, millions of people are dying from infectious diseases such as the swine flu, Ebola, Zika, plague, tuberculosis, and others (Jose et al, 2023;Ojo et al, 2021;Zafar, Tunç, et al, 2021). Controlling these infectious diseases was difficult due to the propensity of the bacteria, viruses, and parasites that cause them to change over time.…”

Section: Mathematical Modeling On Real Life Scenariomentioning

confidence: 99%

<span>Changing perception through the art of mathematical modeling</span>

Jose

Raja

2023

dthujs

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Nowadays, infectious diseases are disorders caused by organisms — such as bacteria, viruses, fungi or parasites. Many organisms live in and on our bodies. They’re normally harmless or even helpful. But certain microbes have the potential to cause disease in specific situations. It is possible for some infectious diseases to spread from person to person. Others are spread by animals or insects. In this study, we build certain fundamental models, such as SI, SIR, SIRS, and SEIR, and in numerical simulations, we take into account random parameters to determine the dynamics of the model’s behavior. Finally, we present several studies in mathematical modeling of real situation relevant to epidemiology and population dynamic systems.

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Section: Mathematical Modeling On Real Life Scenariomentioning

confidence: 99%

<span>Changing perception through the art of mathematical modeling</span>

Jose

Raja

2023

dthujs

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“…The study also examines the interaction between prey and predator populations, focusing on the additive Allee effect and intraspecific competition. The study highlights the importance of considering precautionary measures in controlling disease spread, with the rate of precautionary measures playing a crucial role in reducing the chance of infection by the Chickenpox virus [23][24][25] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

الحلول شبه التحليلية لمعادلات فيشر الكسرية للزمن عبر الطريقة التكرارية الجديدة

Tarate,

Bhadane,

Gaikwad

et al. 2024

Baghdad Sci.J

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An effective method for resolving non-linear partial differential equations with fractional derivatives is the New Sumudu Transform Iterative Method (NSTIM). It excels at solving difficult mathematical puzzles and offers insightful information about the behaviour of time-fractional Fisher equations. The method, which makes use of Caputo's sense derivatives and Wolfram in Mathematica, is reliable, simple to use, and gives a visual depiction of the solution. The analytical findings demonstrate that the proposed approach is effective and simple in generating precise solutions for the time-fractional Fisher equations. The results are made more reliable and applicable by including Caputo's sense derivatives. Mathematical modelling relies on the effectiveness and simplicity of the NSTIM approach to solve time-fractional Fisher equations since it enables precise solutions without the use of a lot of processing power. The NSTIM approach is a useful tool for researchers in a variety of domains since it also offers a flexible framework that is easily adaptable to other fractional differential equations. It now becomes possible to examine the dynamics and behaviour of complex systems governed by time-fractional Fisher equations with efficiency and reliability, opening up new research avenues. The ability to solve time-fractional Fisher equations efficiently and reliably using the NSTIM approach has significant implications for various fields such as population dynamics, mathematical biology, and epidemiology. Researchers can now analyze the spread of diseases or study the population dynamics of species with higher accuracy and less computational effort. This advancement in solving fractional differential equations paves the way for deeper insights into the behavior and patterns of complex systems, ultimately advancing scientific understanding and offering new possibilities for practical applications.

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“…These models provide valuable insights that aid policymakers in designing strategies to control and prevent the spread of contagious diseases. In 2023, the study examined the effectiveness of precautionary measures in managing chickenpox in Phuket by utilizing mathematical modeling and conducting bifurcation analysis to evaluate potential outcomes [1], and also in Jose et al [2] the authors have developed and analyzed a deterministic mathematical model to investigate the transmission dynamics of co-infection involving Dengue Fever (DF) and Zika virus (ZIKV), also Van den Driessche and Watmough [3] presents a twostrain epidemic mathematical model that incorporates vaccination strategies, as discussed in the journal Computer Methods in Biomechanics and Biomedical Engineering and also in Joseph et al [4] discusses a fractional-order density-dependent mathematical model aimed at identifying the superior strain of Wolbachia, available as an open access article with options for ordering article reprints and citations. Similarly in 2022, a stuy focused on the computational dynamics of a fractional order substance addictions transfer model incorporating the Atangana-Baleanu-Caputo derivative was conducted [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding COVID-19 propagation: a comprehensive mathematical model with Caputo fractional derivatives for Thailand

Jose,

Panigoro

et al. 2024

Front. Appl. Math. Stat.

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This research introduces a sophisticated mathematical model for understanding the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, incorporating both integer and fractional derivatives. The model undergoes a rigorous analysis, examining equilibrium points, the reproduction number, and feasibility. The application of fixed point theory establishes the existence of a unique solution, demonstrating stability in the model. To derive approximate solutions, the generalized Adams-Bashforth-Moulton method is employed, further enhancing the study's analytical depth. Through a numerical simulation based on Thailand's data, the research delves into the intricacies of COVID-19 transmission, encompassing thorough data analysis and parameter estimation. The study advocates for a holistic approach, recommending a combined strategy of precautionary measures and home remedies, showcasing their substantial impact on pandemic mitigation. This comprehensive investigation significantly contributes to the broader understanding and effective management of the COVID-19 crisis, providing valuable insights for shaping public health strategies and guiding individual actions.

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Mathematical modeling of chickenpox in Phuket: Efficacy of precautionary measures and bifurcation analysis

Cited by 14 publications

References 22 publications

<span>Changing perception through the art of mathematical modeling</span>

<span>Changing perception through the art of mathematical modeling</span>

الحلول شبه التحليلية لمعادلات فيشر الكسرية للزمن عبر الطريقة التكرارية الجديدة

Understanding COVID-19 propagation: a comprehensive mathematical model with Caputo fractional derivatives for Thailand

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