Measurement of Sprawl Effect Based on Urban Growth Trends and Prediction in Kedungkandang District, Malang City

Abstract

Urban development generally produces a specific type of urban growth that can be identified by looking at the pattern formed by the growth of occuring built-up area. Urban growth in some theories has three types of growth, namely infill, leapfrog and sprawl. Each type has logical consequences for environmental sustainability, such as leapfrog and sprawl which can lead to inefficient use of resources. This study focuses on measuring sprawl intensity based on urban growth trends or built-up area in Kedungkandang District from 2012 to 2020 and based on the results of urban growth or built-up area predictions from 2021 to 2036. Urban growth predictions are carried out using the Cellular Automata method, that there will be 975 hectares built-up land growth from 2016 to 2036. Then to measure the intensity of sprawl as a result of urban growth, the Shannon’s Entropy method is used with the result that the urban growth process in Kedungkandang District within 24 years tends to decrease in sprawl intensity by 50%. The results of this study are expected to provide insight and future views for the Government in dealing with urban growth in Kedungkandang District in the future.