Measuring heat vulnerability with models, maps, and workshops

Abstract

Extreme heat kills more people than all other natural disasters combined, and global warming is increasing the intensity, duration, frequency, and season length of extreme heat. During extreme temperatures, power demand for cooling increases, while generation capacity can be reduced, occasionally triggering power outages when communities are most vulnerable. Existing heat vulnerability assessment methods do not consider housing characteristics and fail to incorporate local knowledge and perspectives. This dissertation proposes a process for deploying a novel Heat Vulnerability Framework (HVF) which addresses these gaps to improve heat vulnerability assessment methods.First, a thermal modeling approach is presented to assess housing as a vulnerability factor. This approach simulates historical heat events and theoretical power outages in Worcester, Massachusetts, and uses building performance simulations to estimate the indoor heat index of the residential building stock. The findings highlight that homes without air conditioning are significantly more vulnerable than homes with air conditioning, homes built before 1950 are significantly more vulnerable than homes built after 1970, and detached homes are significantly more vulnerable than multi-family homes with 5 or more units.Second, community-based participatory research (CBPR) methods are developed to tailor the HVF to meet the community's needs. Through a case-study in Worcester, these CBPR methods were employed in collaboration with three community organizations. This collaboration led to factors such as public transit, green spaces, blue spaces, home ownership, and homelessness being incorporated into the CBPR-driven HVF.Third, a method for creating vulnerability maps using the CBPR-driven HVF is presented. This method uses only public available data sources to assign vulnerability scores on a census tract level. A case study in Worcester revealed greater vulnerability on its northern side, including unequal access to public splash parks and pools and limited access to air conditioning and public cooling shelters. This interdisciplinary dissertation uses Worcester as a case-study to demonstrate the scalability of the proposed CBPR-driven HVF process to identify and assess heat vulnerability in any community using publicly available data sources.iii