Measuring inflation expectations ofthe Russian population with the help of machine learning

Голощапова, И. О.; Andreev, Mikhail

doi:10.32609/0042-8736-2017-6-71-93

Cited by 8 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Studies by Russian researchers have also started to use text analysis and the Google Trends service. Goloshchapova and Andreev (2017), for example, suggested a new approach to constructing inflation expectations indicators based on the algorithms of internet user opinions (comments) regarding inflation. It was found that the index measuring inflation expectations based on the internet may become a viable analogue of official survey data.…”

Section: Russian Journal Of Money and Finance 28 December 2018mentioning

confidence: 99%

Text Mining-based Economic Activity Estimation

Yakovleva¹

2018

RJMF

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This paper outlines a methodology for constructing a highfrequency indicator of economic activity in Russia. News stories from internet resources are used as data sources. News data is analysed using text mining and machine learning methods, which, although developed only relatively recently, have quickly found wide application in scientific research, including economic studies. This is because news is not only a key source of information but a way to gauge the sentiment of journalists and survey respondents about the current situation and convert it into quantitative data.

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Section: Russian Journal Of Money and Finance 28 December 2018mentioning

confidence: 99%

Text Mining-based Economic Activity Estimation

Yakovleva¹

2018

RJMF

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“…On the marketing side, various shopping sites like Amazon and Flipkart take feedback from the customers, which will help them make proper decisions to improve the quality of their services (Sangam & Shinde, 2019). Stock price forecasting (Nguyen et al, 2015), detection of the determinants of Bitcoin Prices (Georgoula et al, 2015) and measuring inflation expectations (Goloshchapova & Andreev, 2017) are some of the examples of finance SA applications.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Turkish Sentiment Analysis for Open and Distance Education Systems

Aydin¹,

Öztürk²,

Cicek³

2021

Turkish Online Journal of Distance Education

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Students' opinions are the most essential source to enhance the quality of education and educational services in Open and Distance education (ODE) Systems. How to access and analyze students' real opinions is a problem for ODE institutions. The purpose of the present study is to conduct a sentiment analysis (SA) on the collected Turkish tweets about an ODE system to monitor students' opinions and sentiments about the system. Firstly, the related 63699 tweets about the ODE system are gathered and analyzed. Later, preprocessing is applied to the dataset. Sentence-based SA is performed with the data provided. The dataset is vectorized using two vector space models to test four classifiers which are Support Vector Machines, K-Nearest Neighbor, Logistic Regression (LR), and Artificial Neural Networks. F-score values obtained with these classifiers are evaluated, and the results are discussed. LR classifier gives the best F-score values with %75 for each vector space model. Through the SA results, students' dissatisfaction, appreciation, and concerns will be learned quickly by the university administration to develop strategies that will increase the quality of education and educational services.

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“…BD-технологии, или BD-методы, многими исследователями расцениваются как наиболее перспективные и претендующие на первые места в рейтинге популярности различных методов оценки инфляционных ожиданий наряду с социологическими опросами. В целом ряде работ зарубежных и российских авторов приводятся результаты анализа больших массивов текстовых данных, обсуждаются проблемы построения и ранжирования индексов, характеризующих состояние экономики, на основе автоматической обработки новостей, поисковых запросов, комментариев в социальных сетях (см., например: [Goloshchapova, Andreev, 2017;Ulyankin, 2020;Baranowski et al, 2021]). Краткие обзоры преимуществ, возможностей и ограничений исследований, посвященных контекстному анализу, можно найти в работах [Balatsky, Yurevich, 2018;.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Formation of economic agents’ inflationary expectations and central bank policy effectiveness: Еxperimental approach

Polyakova¹,

Vymyatnina²

2021

SUJES

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Expectations of heterogeneous economic agents play a pivotal role in modern macroeconomic theory. Since the standard assumption about a representative fully rational agent and his/her ability to form model-consistent expectations of the underlying process governing real economic outcomes is subject to well-grounded criticism, laboratory experiments are an important tool for gaining new knowledge about the formation of individual expectations. This paper provides an overview of the results of learning-to-forecast experiments based on the New Keynesian model that allow to identify specificities of agents’ expectations formation. These results suggest specific recommendations on ways to increase efficiency of the Central Bank monetary policy. Special attention is paid to agents’ inflation expectations and specificities of applying various types of inflation targeting. The article presents an analysis of the impact of announcing the inflation target on agents’ inflation expectations and the main macroeconomic variables dynamics for two different inflation targeting regimes — strict and flexible. A comparison of point and band versions of inflation targeting is provided for shocks affecting the economy with different intensities. The results of learning-to-forecast experiments presented in the review provide evidence of training and switching between different forecasting heuristics and also indicate the presence of specific cognitive restrictions of agents that extend a certain heuristic rule to all macroeconomic variables for which the forecast is performed.

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Measuring inflation expectations ofthe Russian population with the help of machine learning

Cited by 8 publications

References 21 publications

Text Mining-based Economic Activity Estimation

Text Mining-based Economic Activity Estimation

Turkish Sentiment Analysis for Open and Distance Education Systems

Formation of economic agents’ inflationary expectations and central bank policy effectiveness: Еxperimental approach

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