Measuring the seismic risk along the Nazca-Southamerican subduction front: Shannon entropy and mutability

Abstract

Abstract. Four geographical zones are defined along the trench that is formed due to the subduction of the Nazca Plate underneath the South American plate; they are denoted A, B, C and D from North to South; zones A, B and D have had a major earthquake after 2010 (8.0), while zone C has not, thus offering a contrast for comparison. For each zone a sequence of intervals between consecutive seisms with magnitudes ≥ 3.0 is formed and then characterized by Shannon entropy and mutability. These methods show correlation after a major earthquake in what is known as the aftershock regime but they show independence otherwise. Exponential adjustments for these parameters reveal that mutability offers a wider range for the parameters characterizing the recovery to the values of the parameters defining the background activity for each zone before a large earthquake. It is found that the background activity is particularly high for zone A, still recovering for Zone B, reaching values similar to those of Zone A in the case of Zone C (without recent major earthquake) and oscillating around moderate values for Zone D. It is discussed how this can be an indication for more risk of an important future seism in the cases of Zones A and C. The similarities and differences between Shannon entropy and mutability are discussed and explained.