Meta-Population Modelling and Simulation of the Dynamic of Malaria Transmission with Influence of Climatic Factors

Abstract

We model the dynamic of malaria transmission taking into account climatic factors and the migration between Douala and Yaoundé , Yaoundé and Ngaoundé ré , three cities of Cameroon country. We show how variations of climatic factors such as temperature and relative humidity affect the malaria spread. We propose a meta-population model of the dynamic transmission of malaria that evolves in space and time and that takes into account temperature and relative humidity and the migration between Douala and Yaoundé , Yaoundé and Ngaoundé ré . More, we integrate the variation of environmental factors as events also called mathematical impulsion that can disrupt the model evolution at any time. Our modelling has been done using the Discrete EVents System Specification (DEVS) formalism. Our implementation has been done on Virtual Laboratory Environment (VLE) that uses DEVS formalism and abstract simulators for coupling models by integrating the concept of DEVS.

Stability analysis of a metapopulation model for the dynamics of malaria's spread including climatic factors

“…More, Tsanou did not take into consideration climatic factors. In our previous work [7] , after an extensive survey on malaria and existing models, we proposed a metapopulation model including climatic factors and human migrations (without analysing the global asymptotic stability).…”

“…We analyze, in this paper, the global asymptotic stability of our model firstly defined in [7] and represented here by system of equations (1) . The word patch that we will use represents a geographical location (a city, a region, a country, etc.)…”