Meteorological Drought Risk Assessment Using Spi Numerical Model: A Case Study of Helmand River Basin, Afghanistan

Abstract

Meteorological droughts, which result from insufficient precipitation, can cause significant economic damage. While preventing meteorological droughts is impossible, their harmful effects can be reduced through close monitoring. This study aims to evaluate the meteorological drought in the Helmand River Basin using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) model. The hydrometeorological data used for this analysis were collected from the Ministry of Energy and Water (MEW) in Afghanistan. The precipitation data collected from MEW covers a 40-year period from 1979 to 2021. The SPI analysis of precipitation shows that 1990, 1991, and 1992 were moderately wet, while 1982, 1983, 1995-1998, 2005, 2014, and 2015 were nearly normal. However, moderately dry conditions were observed in 2000, 2001, 2018, and 2021. Among the sampled stations, Waras and Gardez consistently had low drought levels, while Tarnak, Shila-i-charkha, and Khwabgah stations experienced moderate-level drought. Meanwhile, Lashkargah and Adraskan stations exhibited relatively high levels of drought. In conclusion, this research on the HRB, using the SPI method, has provided valuable knowledge for understanding drought dynamics in the region. The findings underscore the importance of conducting region-specific analyses, the necessity of implementing sustainable water management strategies, and the global significance of addressing drought as a pressing environmental challenge.