Methodological and Theoretical Framework of the Concept of the Resiliency of Support Subsystem of the Ukrainian National Economy in the Conditions of Shock Disturbance

Abstract

The paper deals with the methodological and theoretical substantiation and practical verification of the feasibility of applying the concept of resilience to assess the impact of shocks on the supply subsystem of the Ukrainian national economy. The paper suggests that the supply subsystem of the national economy has resilience properties and can absorb shock disturbances through both static and adaptive mechanisms. At the theoretical level of research, it was proposed to distinguish between the dynamic and static components of the resilience of the socio-economic system. It has been found that the ability of a socioeconomic system to absorb shocks after a crisis can be an innate or adaptive quality. It is proposed to understand innate resilience as a systemic ability to withstand crises. At the same time, a set of additional efforts or measures forms adaptive resilience and determines the ability of the socioeconomic system to maintain its own functioning in crisis situations. It is shown that in the lack of adequate statistical information specifying the national economic output the empirical level of research can be based on quasi-indices of economic activity expectations. Based on this assumption, the study proposes the use of the business activity expectations index (BAEI) of the National Bank of Ukraine for indirect estimates of economic performance. It is determined that in the conditions of military aggression of the Russian Federation, the national economy of Ukraine demonstrates a fairly significant static resilience with signs of relative recovery. At the same time, at the level of the supply subsystem, a trend of deployment of a long-term financial and economic crisis is being formed, both due to the loss of natural and produced capital, and the release of a significant amount of human capital from aggregate production. Medium- and short-term trends in the recovery of both business activity and the static resilience indicators are a sign of adaptive efforts on the part of the state and significant external financial support for Ukraine in 2022.