Methodological Approaches to Assessing the Probability of Bankruptcy of Ukrainian Companies

Abstract

The aim of the study is to methodical assessment of the probability of bankruptcy of Ukrainian enterprises taking into account the specifics of agricultural activity. We defined the term "bankruptcy" taking into account its economic and legal aspect; the effects of threats on the financial and economic condition of the enterprise and the probability of bankruptcy were investigated; studied and analyzed the most common methods of assessing the probability of bankruptcy of enterprises in modern business conditions. To achieve this aim, the following research methods and techniques were used: abstract-logical method (when revealing the essence of the concept of Bankruptcy); dialectical approach (for theoretical generalization on problems identification and ways of solving these problems, for formulation of conclusions); method of expert assessments, comparative analysis approach, analysis and synthesis methods (in developing the concept of assessing the probability of bankruptcy); monographic technique (for in-depth study of individual types of factors influencing the likelihood of bankruptcy); graphical and tabular method (when presenting the results of the study). The author's definition of the term "bankruptcy" is offered. The classification of the principal branch factors influencing probability of bankruptcy of the enterprises of agrarian sphere of Ukraine is specified and schematized. It was proved that the discriminant analysis of the assessment of the probability of bankruptcy (construction of multifactor models that summarize the most important financial indicators in the integrated indicator) does not take into account the sectoral characteristics of agricultural enterprises. The concept of bankruptcy diagnostics was set forward, which combines discriminant analysis and expert assessment of qualitative signs of a possible crisis of an agricultural enterprise. The indicators selected for examination cover non-financial factors– risks and threats of agricultural production in Ukraine, and their generalization allows to clarify the risk of bankruptcy.

Оцінювання Впливу Позикового Капіталу На Банкрутство Підприємств Аграрного Сектора

“…[3], A. Jaki, W. Cwiek [4], J. Horváthová, M. Mokrišová [5], Л. Дорогань-Писаренко та ін. [6], А. Матвійчук [7], О. Терещенко [8] та ін. Актуальним питанням серед науковців є проведення досліджень з прогнозування банкрутства із застосуванням дискримінантного аналізу, зокрема у працях О. Терещенка [8], О. Транченко [9], Л. Дорогань-Писаренко та ін.…”