Needle abscission in balsam fir has been linked to both cold acclimation and changes in lipid composition. The overall objective of this research is to uncover lipid changes in balsam fir during cold acclimation and link those changes with postharvest abscission. Branches were collected monthly from September to December and were assessed for cold tolerance via membrane leakage and chlorophyll fluorescence changes at −5, −15, −25, −35, and −45 °C. Lipids were extracted and analyzed using mass spectrometry while postharvest needle abscission was determined gravimetrically. Cold tolerance and needle retention each significantly (p < 0.001) improved throughout autumn in balsam fir. There were concurrent increases in DGDG, PC, PG, PE, and PA throughout autumn as well as a decrease in MGDG. Those same lipids were strongly related to cold tolerance, though MGDG had the strongest relationship (R2 = 55.0% and 42.7% from membrane injury and chlorophyll fluorescence, respectively). There was a similar, albeit weaker, relationship between MGDG:DGDG and needle retention (R2 = 24.3%). Generally, a decrease in MGDG:DGDG ratio resulted in better cold tolerance and higher needle retention in balsam fir, possibly due to increased membrane stability. This study confirms the degree of cold acclimation in Nova Scotian balsam fir and presents practical significance to industry by identifying the timing of peak needle retention. It is suggested that MGDG:DGDG might be a beneficial tool for screening balsam fir genotypes with higher needle retention characteristics.