Mexican agricultural frontier communities differ in forest dynamics with consequences for conservation and restoration

Abstract

Forest regrowth is key to achieve restoration commitments, but we need to better understand under what circumstances it takes place and how long secondary forests persist. We studied a recently colonized agricultural frontier in southern Mexico. We quantified the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest loss and regrowth and tested how temporal variation in climate, and spatial variation in land availability, land quality and accessibility affect forest disturbance, regrowth and secondary forest persistence. Marqués de Comillas consistently exhibits more forest loss than regrowth, resulting in a net decrease of 30% forest cover (1991-2016). Secondary forest cover remained relatively constant while secondary forest persistence increased, suggesting that farmers are moving away from shifting cultivation. Temporal variation in disturbance and regrowth were explained by the annual variation in the Oceanic El Niño index combined with dry season rainfall and key policy and market interventions.Across communities the availability of high-quality soil overrules the effects of land availability and accessibility, but that at the pixel-level all three factors contributed to explaining forest conservation and restoration. Communities with more high-quality soils were able to spare land for forest conservation, and had less secondary forest that persisted for longer. Old forest and secondary forests were better represented on low-quality lands and on communal land. Both old and secondary forest were less common close to the main road, where secondary forests were also less persistent. Forest conservation and restoration can be explained by a complex interplay of biophysical and social drivers across time, space and scale. We warrant that stimulating private land ownership may cause remaining forest patches to be lost and that conservation initiatives should benefit the whole community. Forest regrowth and secondary forest persistence competes with agricultural production and ensuring farmers can access restoration benefits is key to success.