Mid-Pliocene West African Monsoon Rainfall as simulated in the
PlioMIP2 ensemble

Berntell, Ellen; Zhang, Qiong; Li, Qiang; Haywood, Alan M.; Tindall, Julia; Hunter, Stephen J.; Zhang, Zhongshi; Li, Xiangyu; Guo, Chuncheng; Nisancioglu, Kerim H.; Stepanek, Christian; Lohmann, Gerrit; Sohl, Linda E.; Chandler, Mark A.; Tan, Ning; Contoux, Camille; Ramstein, Gilles; Baatsen, Michiel; Heydt, Anna S. von der; Chandan, Deepak; Peltier, W. Richard; Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako; Chan, Wing‐Le; Kamae, Youichi; Williams, Charles; Lunt, Daniel J.

doi:10.5194/cp-2021-16

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…Compared with proxies from Foley and Dowsett (2019), the SSTs in the tropics were broadly consistent in the models and data, and in the Atlantic the polar amplification was better represented by the models compared with previous model-data comparisons such as those from PlioMIP1. Recent studies using the PlioMIP2 ensemble have explored other aspects of the model simulations, such as ocean circulation (Zhang et al, 2021) and the African monsoon (Berntell et al, 2021). It is of interest to evaluate simulations from additional models as they become available, and that is what we do here, presenting results from a new model, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, for the Pliocene.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period using HadGEM3: Experimental design and results from model-model and model-data comparison

Williams¹,

Sellar²,

Ren³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. Here we present the experimental design and results from a new mid-Pliocene simulation using the latest version of the UK’s physical climate model, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, conducted under the auspices of CMIP6/PMIP4/PlioMIP2. Although two other paleoclimate simulations have been recently run using this model, they both focused on more recent periods within the Quaternary and therefore this is the first time this version of the UK model has been run this far back in time. The mid-Pliocene Warm Period, ~3 Ma, is of particular interest because it represents a time period when the Earth was in equilibrium with CO2 concentrations roughly equivalent to those of today, providing a possible analogue for current and future climate change. The implementation of the Pliocene boundary conditions is firstly described in detail, based on the PRISM4 dataset, including CO2, ozone, orography, ice mask, lakes, vegetation fractions and vegetation functional types. These were incrementally added into the model, to change from a preindustrial setup to Pliocene conditions. The results of the simulation are then presented, which are firstly compared with the model’s pre-industrial simulation, secondly with previous versions of the same model and with available proxy data, and thirdly with all other models included in PlioMIP2. Firstly, the comparison with preindustrial suggests that the Pliocene simulation is consistent with current understanding and existing work, showing warmer and wetter conditions, and with the greatest warming occurring over high latitude and polar regions. The global mean surface air temperature anomaly at the end of the Pliocene simulation is 5.1 °C, which is the 2nd highest of all models included in PlioMIP2 and is consistent with the fact that HadGEM3-GC31-LL has one of the highest Effective Climate Sensitivities of all CMIP6 models. Secondly, the comparison with previous generation models and with proxy data suggests a clear increase in global sea surface temperatures as the model has undergone development. Up to a certain level of warming, this results in a better agreement with available proxy data, and the “sweet spot” appears to be the previous CMIP5 generation of the model, HadGEM2-AO. The most recent simulation presented here, however, appears to show poorer agreement with the proxy data compared with HadGEM2, and may be overly sensitive to the Pliocene boundary conditions resulting in a climate that is too warm. Thirdly, the comparison with other models from PlioMIP2 further supports this conclusion, with HadGEM3-GC31-LL being one of the warmest and wettest models in all of PlioMIP2 and, if all the models are ordered according to agreement with proxy data, HadGEM3-GC31-LL ranks approximately halfway among them.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period using HadGEM3: Experimental design and results from model-model and model-data comparison

Williams¹,

Sellar²,

Ren³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…A weaker Hadley Circulation may lead to weakened zonal mean moisture divergence from the subtropics and, in turn, reduced aridity 18,29,30 . Nonetheless, with advancements in model development and boundary conditions, newer earth system model simulations show substantial differences in simulated past climate states 23,31,32 , particularly in mid-Pliocene SST patterns 33 , polar warmth 34 , Atlantic Overturning Circulation 35 , and precipitation 36 .…”

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confidence: 99%

Past terrestrial hydroclimate sensitivity controlled by Earth system feedbacks

et al. 2022

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Despite tectonic conditions and atmospheric CO2 levels (pCO2) similar to those of present-day, geological reconstructions from the mid-Pliocene (3.3-3.0 Ma) document high lake levels in the Sahel and mesic conditions in subtropical Eurasia, suggesting drastic reorganizations of subtropical terrestrial hydroclimate during this interval. Here, using a compilation of proxy data and multi-model paleoclimate simulations, we show that the mid-Pliocene hydroclimate state is not driven by direct CO2 radiative forcing but by a loss of northern high-latitude ice sheets and continental greening. These ice sheet and vegetation changes are long-term Earth system feedbacks to elevated pCO2. Further, the moist conditions in the Sahel and subtropical Eurasia during the mid-Pliocene are a product of enhanced tropospheric humidity and a stationary wave response to the surface warming pattern, which varies strongly with land cover changes. These findings highlight the potential for amplified terrestrial hydroclimate responses over long timescales to a sustained CO2 forcing.

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“…Local atmospheric dust concentration and surface deposition therefore depend on the distance to the source, source emission strength, wind speed and direction, and the hydrological cycle. They are also not constant throughout the year, but depend on emission event and washout frequency (Prospero et al 2002).…”

Section: Pmip3 Picontrol Sea Surface Temperature Biasmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mid-Pliocene West African Monsoon Rainfall as simulated in the PlioMIP2 ensemble

Cited by 4 publications

References 35 publications

Simulation of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period using HadGEM3: Experimental design and results from model-model and model-data comparison

Simulation of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period using HadGEM3: Experimental design and results from model-model and model-data comparison

Past terrestrial hydroclimate sensitivity controlled by Earth system feedbacks

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