Migratory behavior and winter geography drive differential range shifts of eastern birds in response to recent climate change

Abstract

Over the past half century, migratory birds in North America have shown divergent population trends relative to resident species, with the former declining rapidly and the latter increasing. The role that climate change has played in these observed trends is not well understood, despite significant warming over this period. We used 43 y of monitoring data to fit dynamic species distribution models and quantify the rate of latitudinal range shifts in 32 species of birds native to eastern North America. Since the early 1970s, species that remain in North America throughout the year, including both resident and migratory species, appear to have responded to climate change through both colonization of suitable area at the northern leading edge of their breeding distributions and adaption in place at the southern trailing edges. Neotropical migrants, in contrast, have shown the opposite pattern: contraction at their southern trailing edges and no measurable shifts in their northern leading edges. As a result, the latitudinal distributions of temperate-wintering species have increased while the latitudinal distributions of neotropical migrants have decreased. These results raise important questions about the mechanisms that determine range boundaries of neotropical migrants and suggest that these species may be particularly vulnerable to future climate change. Our results highlight the potential importance of climate change during the nonbreeding season in constraining the response of migratory species to temperature changes at both the trailing and leading edges of their breeding distributions. Future research on the interactions between breeding and nonbreeding climate change is urgently needed.

Extreme winter weather disrupts bird occurrence and abundance patterns at geographic scales

“…Some species may have even shifted their ranges northwards, either temporarily or through the winter, appearing on more checklists because they became more common in the area affected by the heat wave. Recent evidence suggests that, as a result of a warming winter climate, resident birds (including most of those tested) are responding more strongly than other bird groups by shifting northward and colonizing new areas along northern leading edge of their breeding ranges (La Sorte and Thompson 2007, Rushing et al 2020).…”

Evolution of thermal physiology alters the projected range of threespine stickleback under climate change

“…This counterintuitive result occurs because climate change opens up newly available thermal niche space in waters north of the current day geographic range 20 , and the evolution of CTmin extends this range expansion further still. Northward range expansion with climate change due to increasing habitat availability has also been documented in birds 38-41 , plants 42 , other fishes 43-45 , and pest species (such as ticks 46-48 and mountain pine beetle 49,50 ), as well as in large scale analyses of diverse taxa assessing the ‘fingerprints’ of climate change impacts 51,52 . However, it is likely that evolution of CTmax will also play a role in responses to environmental change 53-55 .…”

Declines in Common and Migratory Breeding Landbird Species in South Korea Over the Past Two Decades

“…Migratory and insectivorous species are declining in temperate regions (Sanderson et al, 2006;Bowler et al, 2019;Rushing et al, 2020). Climate and land-use change often pose greater threats to migratory species than resident species due to the potential effects of these factors on the availability of arthropod prey and thermoregulation during periods of high energy demands (Both et al, 2010;McKechnie and Wolf, 2010;Pearce-Higgins et al, 2015).…”