Mitigating California Wildfire Impact Through Zoning and Housing Policy

Abstract

Since 1970, California has been facing the worst affordable housing crisis in the United States. In an attempted solution, government subsidies have driven housing development into untouched wildlands across the state. However, these developments are increasingly subject to destruction by wildfire due to global climate change and historical mismanagement of public lands. Since 1990, 41% of new housing across California has been developed in known fire zones. Wildfire prevention, combat, and damage costs approximately $18 billion annually, with $10 billion attributed to property damage. During 2020, California’s worst fire year on record, more than 4.4 million acres burned with costs to personal property estimated to exceed $20 billion. Therefore, residential zoning and housing policy are critical components to mitigate wildfire impact. To do so, we propose the implementation of a multipronged approach over the next decade: discontinue development in extremely high-risk fire zones, increase government buyouts in these high-risk areas to move people out of harm’s way, increase urban up-zoning to generate affordable housing, and increase retrofitting of existing at-risk homes to enhance structural and resident survival. This will be a historic economic, legislative, and logistic undertaking. However, despite the large up-front costs, an estimated $350 billion and 1,500 lives can be saved over the next decade through this approach. The consequences to life and property because of wildfire in California are too great for inaction or incremental progress. Swift and foundational change is required over the coming decade.