Modal Splits Before, During, and After the Pandemic in Switzerland

Abstract

The MOBIS-Covid data provides a unique opportunity to put mobility adjustments observed during the crisis in perspective. A large panel has been tracked from before the crisis up until the end of 2022. Starting with 1370 participants and observing a gradual drop-off, around 250 kept tracking throughout the whole study period of over 2 years. Switzerland lifted its measures counteracting the virus spread in mid-February 2022, reaching a potential new equilibrium in the months after. Descriptive indicators have been constructed for Switzerland in order to disentangle the narrative of the crisis from the perspective of transport demand. The descriptive findings are supplemented by a mixed multiple discrete-continuous extreme value model (MMDCEV). We find a shift in modal splits away from car and train, where in particular bus could expand its mode share. While the cycling and walking booms were temporary, the bicycle still shows slightly higher mode distance shares. There are observable differences between the working arrangements (home office, mixture and in-office), however, we do not find evidence that preferences differ substantially. This suggests that the working arrangement segments the population along socioeconomic dimensions with different mobility behaviors and mode preferences. Modes are more satiated in the post-pandemic world, hinting that people use fewer modes in their weekly modal mix but use them more intensely. However, the model suggests that the pandemic should not be read as a structural break in mode preferences. We will therefore likely see further convergence to the pre-pandemic equilibrium.

How much should public transport services be expanded, and who should pay? Experimental evidence from Switzerland

“…It led to a sharp reduction of PT use, mainly due to government-imposed lock-downs and mandatory work-from-home rules, but also due to social distancing and mask mandates for PT systems (Dingil and Esztergár-Kiss 2021;Molloy et al 2021;Zhang et al 2021). Even though PT usage had mostly bounced back to pre-pandemic levels by early 2024 (Heimgartner and Axhausen 2023), PT providers are confronted with uncertainty over future travel patterns. More flexible work arrangements, in particular, have carried over past the pandemic in many sectors.…”

“…Recent systemic shocks (such as the COVID-19 pandemic) have resulted in additional uncertainty over future demand for PT services (Axhausen 2022). More flexible work arrangements in particular have carried over past the pandemic in many sectors, resulting in changes in commuting behavior and modal choices (Heimgartner and Axhausen 2023). Such changes, in turn, have affected the purchase of PT season tickets, such as the Swiss Generalabonnement (GA) (SBB 2022), forcing PT providers to reconsider pricing and business models.…”