Model Evaluation at the Energy Information Administration

Abstract

The Energy Information Administration's model quality program is based on objective information about model assumptions, equations, and data sources, and the ability of outside examiners to review models and replicate results. Agency standards and management enforce incentives for preparing and submitting timely documentation and building archive versions of models throughout the development process. Programs require regular review of models during the development process by outside experts and the detailed mathematical, statistical, and econometric review and software verification at key developmental stages of development. The agency gauges the effectiveness of the model quality program by the numbers of models documented and reviewed and by compliance with recommendations to retire, modify, or enhance the models reviewed.