Modeling Air Pollutant Emission Reductions from Implementation of Pakistan’s 2023 Clean Air Policy

Abstract

In March 2023, Pakistan's Cabinet approved a Clean Air Policy which established ambient air quality targets and identified priority actions in the major air pollutant-emitting sectors. This work describes a quantitative air pollutant and greenhouse gas mitigation modeling assessment at national and subnational scale that provided evidence to inform Pakistan's Clean Air Policy. Air pollutant emissions are quantified historically (2010−2021) and projected to 2050 for baseline (without implementation of mitigation measures) and for scenarios which model the implementation of 18 specific mitigation measures. The assessment identified five major air pollutant-emitting sources nationally: Households (35% national total primary PM 2.5 emissions), Transport (5%), Industry (16%), Agriculture (17%), and Waste (24%). Pakistan's Clean Air Policy identifies a priority mitigation measure for each of these sectors, which collectively could reduce national PM 2.5 emissions by 36.4% in 2030 compared to the baseline. Full implementation of all 18 mitigation measures would reduce primary PM 2.5 emissions by 80% in 2050 compared with the baseline. Developing a Clean Air Policy was committed to in Pakistan's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to help achieve Pakistan's climate change commitment while improving public health. This study shows that the Clean Air Policy could also have benefits for Pakistan meeting its climate change goals, with an estimated 5% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions and 42% reduction in methane emissions achievable by 2050 from full implementation of the actions evaluated in this assessment. As Pakistan's Clean Air Policy is implemented, progressively updating this air pollutant and climate change mitigation assessments can help track progress on its achievement.