Modeling and Evaluation of Effective Factors on thermal islands with an approach based on fuzzy systems: A case study of Tehran

Abstract

Urban heat islands are areas where the development of urbanization and human activities have significantly increased the temperature of the area compared to the surrounding areas. The main goal of this research was to provide a simple, developable and appropriate analytical model so that it can contribute to the better management of urban services by predicting the areas with the highest probability of heat islands and accurate analytical estimation of its factors. In this study, a fuzzy logic method has been used to determine the location of heat islands in Tehran. First, all the factors are identified, and then Their analysis was assigned to each of the weighted data, finally by writing the law of fuzzy comparison, the comparison between the layers, and the extracted layers are done. According to the modeling results, the presence of urban heat islands causes warming of 1.3°C in summer and 1.4°C in winter. Due to the presence and development of cities and urban heat islands, the average O3 pollutants have increased by about 0.5 ppb, the average NO2 pollutants by about 2 ppb, and CO by about 40 ppb. Finally, by considering the coefficient of these factors and comparing the data of the model, an accuracy of 78.6% was obtained. The final results showed that in regions 9, 10, 11, 17, and 18 and parts of region 21 of Tehran, the possibility of heat islands is very high.