Modeling and forecasting industrial electricity demand for Saudi Arabia: Uncovering regional characteristics

Mikayilov, Jeyhun I.; Alyamani, Ryan; Darandary, Abdulelah; Javid, Muhammad; Hasanov, Fakhri J.

doi:10.1016/j.tej.2023.107331

The Electricity Journal

2023

DOI: 10.1016/j.tej.2023.107331

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Modeling and forecasting industrial electricity demand for Saudi Arabia: Uncovering regional characteristics

Jeyhun I. Mikayilov,

Ryan Alyamani,

Abdulelah Darandary

et al.

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2024

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Cited by 3 publications

References 39 publications

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Impacts of electricity price reform on Saudi regional fuel consumption and CO2 emissions

Darandary,

Mikayilov,

Soummane

2024

Energy Economics

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Impacts of electricity price reform on Saudi regional fuel consumption and CO2 emissions

Darandary,

Mikayilov,

Soummane

2024

Energy Economics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Dynamic simulation and optimal design of a combined cold and power system with 10 MW compressed air energy storage and integrated refrigeration

Chen,

Qin,

et al. 2024

Energy

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Modelling and projecting regional electricity demand for Saudi Arabia

Mikayilov,

Darandary

2024

OPEC Energy Review

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We address the shortcomings associated with modelling national aggregate electricity consumption in a large and diverse country with unique regional characteristics. Focusing on Saudi Arabia, we employ an econometric approach to analyse the distinct responses of its regions to electricity prices and income levels. The study employs a general to specific modelling approach, utilizing data from 1990 to 2019 within the conventional energy demand theoretical framework. Our region‐specific estimations reveal income and price as the primary drivers, with the southern region exhibiting a higher sensitivity to income, while the eastern region shows a comparatively smaller response to prices attributed to its significant industrial presence. Elasticities for the central and western regions align with previous research, while eastern and southern regions exhibit larger elasticities. Weather impacts are observed only in the warmest western region, characterised by a substantial share of residential electricity consumption. Furthermore, we utilise our estimated model to project a regional baseline demand for electricity in Saudi Arabia and demonstrate how prices affect regions differently. This information is important for an oil‐exporting country like Saudi Arabia, considering the diverse fuel mix used for electricity generation across regions. Assuming moderate economic growth and no price change, our baseline projections indicate a total electricity demand of 366 terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030.

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Modeling and forecasting industrial electricity demand for Saudi Arabia: Uncovering regional characteristics

Cited by 3 publications

References 39 publications

Impacts of electricity price reform on Saudi regional fuel consumption and CO2 emissions

Impacts of electricity price reform on Saudi regional fuel consumption and CO2 emissions

Dynamic simulation and optimal design of a combined cold and power system with 10 MW compressed air energy storage and integrated refrigeration

Modelling and projecting regional electricity demand for Saudi Arabia

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