Modeling and Managing Poliovirus Risks: We are Where we are…

Thompson, Kimberly M.

doi:10.1111/risa.13668

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Smallpox was eradicated by 1980 (Freund, 2020 ; Tognotti, 2010 ), and while the campaign to eradicate polio has been challenged by residual reservoirs of wild polio virus together with recent difficulties and lapses in vaccination efforts (Tomori, 2018 ), the global effort has made tremendous progress (Matlin et al., 2017 ): the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) has certified global eradication of wild poliovirus serotypes 2 and 3, and serotype 1 wild poliovirus transmission now remains only in Afghanistan and Pakistan. (Chumakov et al., 2021 ; Thompson, 2021 ; Thompson & Kalkowska, 2020 ; Thompson & Kalkowska, 2021 ; WHO, 2021b ). With these advances, immunization has been lauded as one of the biggest public health successes, saving 2–3 million lives a year without counting the contribution of COVID‐19 vaccines (United Nations Children's Fund [UNICEF], 2021 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vaccines and the social amplification of risk

2022

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In 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) named “Vaccine Hesitancy” one of the top 10 threats to global health. Shortly afterward, the COVID‐19 pandemic emerged as the world's predominant health concern. COVID‐19 vaccines of several types have been developed, tested, and partially deployed with remarkable speed; vaccines are now the primary control measure and hope for a return to normalcy. However, hesitancy concerning these vaccines, along with resistance to masking and other control measures, remains a substantial obstacle. The previous waves of vaccine hesitancy that led to the WHO threat designation, together with recent COVID‐19 experience, provide a window for viewing new forms of social amplification of risk (SAR). Not surprisingly, vaccines provide fertile ground for questions, anxieties, concerns, and rumors. These appear in new globalized hyperconnected communications landscapes and in the context of complex human (social, economic, and political) systems that exhibit evolving concerns about vaccines and authorities. We look at drivers, impacts, and implications for vaccine initiatives in several recent historical examples and in the current efforts with COVID‐19 vaccination. Findings and insights were drawn from the Vaccine Confidence Project's decade long monitoring of media and social media and its related research efforts. The trends in vaccine confidence and resistance have implications for updating the social amplification of risk framework (SARF); in turn, SARF has practical implications for guiding efforts to alleviate vaccine hesitancy and to mitigate harms from intentional and unintentional vaccine scares.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vaccines and the social amplification of risk

2022

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“…This section begins with a brief overview of each of the 102 studies identified by the search process summarized in Figure 1 [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 , 15 , 16 , 17 , 18 , 19 , 20 , 21 , 22 , 23 , 24 , 25 , 26 , 27 , 28 , 29 , 30 , 31 , 32 , 33 , 34 , 35 , 36 , 37 , 38 , 39 , 40 , 41 , 42 , 43 , 44 , 45 , 46 , 47 , 48 , 49 , 50 , 51 , 52 , 53 , 54 ,…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Following the release of the 2019–2023 GPEI strategic plan [ 161 ] and post-cessation strategy [ 162 ], KRI updated its integrated model inputs to use retrospective immunization and epidemiology data through the end of 2018 and prospective inputs consistent with available information about recent programmatic performance and updated plans. The third special issue of the journal Risk Analysis on Global Poliovirus Risk Management and Modeling, published in February 2021 [ 6 ], included many of these studies, several of which appeared online in 2020. In January 2020 (prior to the COVID-19 pandemic), the KRI update of its integrated model reported the GPEI was off-track with respect to achieving its polio eradication goals [ 161 ] and attributed this primarily to the low quality of OPV SIAs [ 7 ].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review of Poliovirus Transmission and Economic Modeling to Support Global Polio Eradication: 2020–2024

Thompson,

Badizadegan

2024

Pathogens

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Continued investment in the development and application of mathematical models of poliovirus transmission, economics, and risks leads to their use in support of polio endgame strategy development and risk management policies. This study complements an earlier review covering the period 2000–2019 and discusses the evolution of studies published since 2020 by modeling groups supported by the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) partners and others. We systematically review modeling papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals from 2020–2024.25 that focus on poliovirus transmission and health economic analyses. In spite of the long-anticipated end of poliovirus transmission and the GPEI sunset, which would lead to the end of its support for modeling, we find that the number of modeling groups supported by GPEI partners doubled and the rate of their publications increased. Modeling continued to play a role in supporting GPEI and national/regional policies, but changes in polio eradication governance, decentralized management and decision-making, and increased heterogeneity in modeling approaches and findings decreased the overall impact of modeling results. Meanwhile, the failure of the 2016 globally coordinated cessation of type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine use for preventive immunization and the introduction of new poliovirus vaccines and formulation, increased the complexity and uncertainty of poliovirus transmission and economic models and policy recommendations during this time.

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“…PV comes in three different variants and has an RNA genome and a protein capsid. Its genome is made up of positive-sense ssRNA and measures approximately 7.5 kb in length [ 125 ]. Enterovirus 71 (EV71) is also a picornavirus belonging to the genus Enterovirus and is known to cause severe neurological diseases as well as hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) in young people [ 126 , 127 ].…”

Section: Antiviral Activities Of Alkaloids Against Multiple Virusesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Alkaloids as potential antivirals. A comprehensive review

Faisal

Badshah

Kubra

et al. 2023

Nat. Prod. Bioprospect.

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Alkaloids are a diverse group of natural phytochemicals. These phytochemicals in plants provide them protection against pests, and herbivorous organisms and also control their development. Numerous of these alkaloids have a variety of biological effects, and some have even been developed into medications with different medicinal properties. This review aims to provide a broad overview of the numerous naturally occurring alkaloids (isolated from both terrestrial and aquatic species) along with synthetically produced alkaloid compounds having prominent antiviral properties. Previous reviews on this subject have focused on the biological actions of both natural and synthetic alkaloids, but they have not gone into comprehensive detail about their antiviral properties. We reviewed here several antiviral alkaloids that have been described in the literature in different investigational environments i.e. (in-vivo, in-ovo, in-vitro, and in-silico), and found that these alkaloid compounds have significant antiviral properties against several infectious viruses. These alkaloids repressed and targeted various important stages of viral infection at non-toxic doses while some of the alkaloids reported here also exhibited comparable inhibitory activities to commercially used drugs. Overall, these anti-viral effects of alkaloids point to a high degree of specificity, implying that they could serve as effective and safe antiviral medicines if further pursued in medicinal and pharmacological investigations.

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Modeling and Managing Poliovirus Risks: We are Where we are…

Cited by 5 publications

References 31 publications

Vaccines and the social amplification of risk

Vaccines and the social amplification of risk

Review of Poliovirus Transmission and Economic Modeling to Support Global Polio Eradication: 2020–2024

Alkaloids as potential antivirals. A comprehensive review

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