Modeling and simulation for enterprise decision-making: Successful projects and approaches

Ramadan, Noha; Ajami, Racha; Mohamed, Nader; Lazarova-Molnar, Sanja

doi:10.1109/ieom.2015.7093873

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

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“…Accordingly, questions about the veracity of a given cash flow could be raised, the most likely movements and other probabilistic characteristics of the economic system behavior. The parameters of such models are assessed by using statistical methods [3][4][5][6][7][8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Enterprise growth simulation model

Avlasenko

Peshkhoev

et al. 2020

E3S Web Conf.

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Simulation mathematical model of small enterprise functioning is under analysis in this article. It is assumed that annual working capital profitability and loan rate are random variables with normal distribution, the amount of borrowed capital does not exceed the amount of own working capital. Given the value of its working capital at the beginning of time, its dependence on time is constructed as a random process. The parameters of random variables are estimated based on the processing of statistical data on the previous activities of this enterprise. The implementation of the random process is statistically modeled. With the help of the statistical tests, implementations of random function of growth of own working capital are built and the probability of bankruptcy is estimated as relative frequency of cases of adoption of negative value by random function. It is proposed to use the built simulation model of the enterprise to estimate the probability of bankruptcy of the studied enterprise in the coming period (a given number ofyears).

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