Modeling climate change effects on the potential production of French plains forests at the sub-regional level

Abstract

We modeled the effects of climate change and two forest management scenarios on wood production and forest carbon balance in French forests using process-based models of forest growth. We combined data from the national forest inventory and soil network survey, which were aggregated over a 50 x 50-km grid, i.e., the spatial resolution of the climate scenario data. We predicted and analyzed the climate impact on potential forest production over the period 1960-2100. All models predicted a slight increase in potential forest yield until 2030-2050, followed by a plateau or a decline around 2070-2100, with overall, a greater increase in yield in northern France than in the south. Gross and net primary productivities were more negatively affected by soil water and atmospheric water vapor saturation deficits in western France because of a more pronounced shift in seasonal rainfall from summer to winter. The rotation-averaged values of carbon flux and production for different forest management options were estimated during four years (1980, 2015, 2045 and 2080). Predictions were made using a two-dimensional matrix covering the range of local soil and climate conditions. The changes in ecosystem fluxes and forest production were explained by the counterbalancing effect of rising CO2 concentration and increasing water deficit. The effect of climate change decreased with rotation length from short rotations with high production rates and low standing biomasses to long rotations with low productivities and greater standing biomasses. Climate effects on productivity, both negative and positive, were greatest on high fertility sites. Forest productivity in northern France was enhanced by climate change, increasingly from west to east, whereas in the southwestern Atlantic region, productivity was reduced by climate change to an increasing degree from west to east.

Potential impacts of regional climate change on site productivity of Larix olgensis plantations in northeast China

“…In the context of global warming, the effect of rising temperatures on site productivity have been examined and both positive and negative impacts have been reported (Loustau et al 2005, Ollinger et al 2008, Kellomäki et al 2008, Chiang et al 2008, Latta et al 2009, Coops et al 2010, Kirschabum et al 2012. Quantifying such effect is still challenging, because the temperature simultaneously affects ecosystem processes (photosynthesis, respiration, transpiration, allocation, decomposition, etc.).…”

Phosphorus status of soils from contrasting forested ecosystems in southwestern Siberia: effects of microbiological and physicochemical properties

“…However, the extent to which this happens may depend on local site conditions such as soil fertility, moisture and temperature (Loustau et al, 2005;de Graaff et al, 2006;Dijkstra and Cheng, 2008). For rising levels of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the atmosphere, low nitrogen (N) availability has been shown to limit the C sequestration potential of vegetation (Oren et al, 2001;Reich et al, 2006).…”

Modelling the growth of young individuals of Pinus nigra on thin carbonate soils under climate change in Hungary

“…nigra (Loustau et al 2005, Martínez-Vilalta et al 2008. Precipitation variability could be important since extreme events as severe droughts, could have drastic consequences on tree growth and survival (Granier et al 2007, Loustau et al 2005.…”

“…Precipitation variability could be important since extreme events as severe droughts, could have drastic consequences on tree growth and survival (Granier et al 2007, Loustau et al 2005. The increasing evapotranspiration can result the decrease of the soil moisture in the growing season (Linares et al 2009, Sabaté et al 2002, which can be severe in thin soils.…”