Modeling climate change impacts on the distribution of an endangered brown bear population in its critical habitat in Iran

Ashrafzadeh, Mohammad Reza; Khosravi, R.; Mohammadi, Alireza; Naghipour, Ali Asghar; Khosnamvand, Hadi; Haidarian, Maryam; Penteriani, Vincenzo

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155753

Cited by 22 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 84 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Studying the impact of climate change on plant distribution is helpful to agricultural production and biodiversity protection, and can promote the sustainability of ecosystem. The drastic change of climate will lead to the change of the original habitat of plants, and then affect their suitable range [5][6][7]. Scientific evidences show that climate events such as climate warming, precipitation pattern change and atmospheric CO 2 concentration rise have made a significant influence on species diversity, genetic diversity and landscape diversity [8,9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Suitability changes of Citrus medica L. var. sarcodactylis Swingle, a medicine-food plants affected by climate warming using the optimized MaxEnt model

Xia

Kazim²,

Nasir³

et al. 2023

PLoS ONE

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climatic variables are important conditions for plant growth, development and reproduction. Citrus medica L. var. sarcodactylis Swingle (Rutaceae: Citrus) is one of the traditional bulk Chinese medicinal materials in China with the effects of bacteriostasis, anti-inflammatory, anti-oxidation, anti-cancer cells, regulating the immun. Analyzing the impact of climate change on geographical distribution of C. medica L. var. sarcodactylis can provide strong support for its production layout and agricultural zoning. In our paper, MaxEnt and ArcGIS were applied to simulate the suitable areas of C. medica L. var. sarcodactylis in China from the perspectives of bioclimate, soil, topographic factors and human activities, and the future climate scenarios generated by global climate models (GCMs) were selected to predict its suitable areas in 2050s and 2090s. Results showed that, 1) Under current climate condition, areas of the total, most, moderately and poorly suitable habitats of C. medica L. var. sarcodactylis in China were 177.36×104 km2, 22.27×104 km2, 51.96×104 km2 and 103.13×104 km2 respectively. The range of the most suitable habitat was the narrowest, which was located in the middle east of Sichuan, western Chongqing in the upstream of the Yangtze River Basin, southern Guizhou and western Guangxi in the upstream of the Pearl River Basin, central and southern Yunnan and Southeast Tibet in the Middle-Lower reaches of the Southwest River Basin and western Taiwan. 2) Under the future climate change scenarios, the total suitable area showed a significant increase trend in 2090s, and the change of most, moderately and poorly suitable habitats showed no obvious law. 3) Under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the centroid of the most suitable habitat of C. medica L. var. sarcodactylis would move to the northwest, southeast and southwest respectively.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Suitability changes of Citrus medica L. var. sarcodactylis Swingle, a medicine-food plants affected by climate warming using the optimized MaxEnt model

Xia

Kazim²,

Nasir³

et al. 2023

PLoS ONE

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Besides molecular analysis, Species Distribution Models (SDMs) can act as a useful tool to predict the distribution of species according to climate change. In fact, SDMs signi cantly relate species presence points with climate and topographical data, unveiling species-to-environment connections that are responsible for shaping species distribution patterns (Ashrafzadeh et al 2022). However, for non-native species, it has been rmly documented that SDMs approach could be a valuable proactive tool to distinguish invasion potential ( To this end, the aim of the current study is to integrate the mitochondrial marker and SDMs method to investigate the origin and differentiation of E. tetraedra populations from two protected rivers (Jajroud and Karaj) and one national park (Lar) in Southern Alborz Mountains and predict potential E. tetradra distribution based on climate change scenarios to nd how invasion potential.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Silent Threat of a Non-native Oligochaete Species in Iran's freshwater: Assessment of the Diversity and Origin of Eiseniella tetraedra (Savigny, 1826) and its Response to Climate Change

Azimi¹,

Bagheri²,

Khoshnamvand³

et al. 2023

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Oligochaetes are the most abundant benthic taxa in aquatic ecosystems that play an important role in food webs and energy transmission. The aim of the current study is to assess the origin and diversity of Eiseniella tetraedra a non-native species of Lar National Park in Alborz Mountain ranges of Iran and also its response to current and future climate change. To this, we collected the specimen (23 samples) from Lar National Park Rivers and performed the mitochondrial gene, mitochondrial Cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) combining them with 117 sequences from Jajroud, Karaj River in Iran and native regions from GenBank (NCBI). We also used an ensemble model approach for Species Distribution Modelings (SDMs) that it was estimated according to two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs): 126 and 585 of the MRI-ESM2 based on CMIP6. According to our results, all the samples examined in the current study originated from Spanish rivers and there was no unique haplotype found in Lar National Park. Moreover, The results also show high haplotype diversity that can have a positive effect on the success of its non-native in the different freshwater of Iran. As well as, the result of SDMs maps illustrated that climate change would significantly affect the distribution of E. tetraedra and it showed a sharp tendency to expand and verified the invasion power of the E. tetraedra in Iran's freshwater ecosystems over time.

show abstract

“…To do so, it is important to first establish the current condition through baseline assessments. These assessments are particularly critical for species conservation planning and for evaluating whether existing conservation area (CA)s are climate‐change‐proof (Ashrafzadeh et al, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing landscape suitability and connectivity for effective conservation of two semi‐desert ungulates in Iran

Almasieh,

Mohammadi

2023

Conservat Sci and Prac

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Conservation outside conservation areas (CAs) is more challenging due to increased exposure to human‐induced disturbances. Therefore, it is important to identify and designate new CAs that can protect core wildlife habitat patches, as well as key linkages to promote connectivity. We performed this study to identify and prioritize core habitat patches and corridors for two semi‐desert sympatric gazelles in Iran (i.e., goitered gazelle Gazella subgutturosa and jebeer gazelle G. bennettii) in order to propose the expansion of existing CAs. We used an ensemble distribution modeling approach based on three algorithms (random forest, maximum entropy, and generalized boosting models) for habitat suitability assessment and a combination of resistant kernel and factorial least‐cost path analysis for connectivity modeling. Our results revealed that distance to CAs, elevation, and annual mean temperature were the most influential variables for predicting the distribution of the two gazelle species. We identified 12 and six core habitat patches for goitered gazelle and jebeer gazelle, respectively with a minimum area of 210 km2. Core habitat patches were mainly occurred in the north of the central basin of Iran with a high priority for the conservation of both species. CAs protected up to half of core habitat patches for goitered gazelle and one‐third of core habitat patches for jebeer gazelle. Due to human‐induced disturbances (e.g., vehicle collisions and poaching) outside CAs, it is necessary to increase regular monitoring and establish new CAs based on the identified core habitat patches for the two gazelles. Our findings highlight opportunities of designating new CAs for wildlife habitat and corridors conservation and for promoting connectivity by limiting road impacts.

show abstract

Modeling climate change impacts on the distribution of an endangered brown bear population in its critical habitat in Iran

Cited by 22 publications

References 84 publications

Suitability changes of Citrus medica L. var. sarcodactylis Swingle, a medicine-food plants affected by climate warming using the optimized MaxEnt model

Suitability changes of Citrus medica L. var. sarcodactylis Swingle, a medicine-food plants affected by climate warming using the optimized MaxEnt model

The Silent Threat of a Non-native Oligochaete Species in Iran's freshwater: Assessment of the Diversity and Origin of Eiseniella tetraedra (Savigny, 1826) and its Response to Climate Change

Assessing landscape suitability and connectivity for effective conservation of two semi‐desert ungulates in Iran

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About