Modeling COVID-19 effects on SDGs using system dynamics in Egypt

Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses a significant threat to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). To address this challenge, a thorough examination of the pandemic’s influence on four SDGs in Egypt is presented in a system dynamic model. The addressed goals are related to no poverty (SDG 1), zero hunger (SDG 2), decent work and economic growth (SDG 8), and climate action (SDG 13). The model is simulated over 35 years extending from 2015 to 2050. Furthermore, a web-based interactive learning environment is developed to analyze the interdependencies among public health activities and study the impacts of possible intervention countermeasures or prevention policies. Indicators including poverty line, food insecurity, gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are evaluated to track Egypt’s performance in relation to SDGs 1, 2, 8, and 13. According to the simulation model, the poverty line will continue to decline until it reaches around 16% by 2050. According to the significant governmental efforts to follow its vision of 2030, Egypt can achieve a decreasing percentage of food insecurity, reaching 3% in 2030, and this percentage will continue to decrease until it reaches full sufficiency by 2050. The GDP growth rate will rise every year until it reaches 13.71% in 2050. With respect to climate, GHG emissions are predicted to fall to roughly 97 Mt CO2-equivalents by 2050. This approach revitalizes debates about the achievement of SDGs amid the crisis and acts as a powerful tool that aids decision-makers in identifying leverage points to avoid the long-term negative repercussions of the crisis on the economy, people, and environment.

Sustainable development goals applied to digital pathology and artificial intelligence applications in low- to middle-income countries

“…Our approach identified goals 9 (industry innovation infrastructure), 4 (quality education), and 8 (work and economic growth) as well-aligned with the essential elements for digital pathology and AI. We find it interesting that these goals ranked consistently higher than sustainable development goal 3 (good health and wellbeing) ( 1–3 , 30 , 33 ). We considered one underlying reason that digital pathology and AI rely heavily on technologies combined with computational skills (i.e., higher education); which emphasizes the sustainability associated with improved education.…”

“…We considered one underlying reason that digital pathology and AI rely heavily on technologies combined with computational skills (i.e., higher education); which emphasizes the sustainability associated with improved education. Importantly, perceptions of sustainability often do not cover all dimensions and focus mainly on environmental aspects ( 2 , 4 , 30 , 38 , 39 ). In our rank-order goals 13–15 (climate action, life below water, life on land) were not considered as important to realize AI ( 11 , 22 , 25 ).…”

Overall Cost Overrun Estimate in Residential Projects: A Hybrid Dynamics Approach

“…To become a skilled workforce, the newly hired labor requires time to be taught. (5) conditions, operating efficiency, and the efficiency of the equipment driver. As a result, the theoretical equipment productivity is rectified using the correction factor in this subsystem.…”

“…e system dynamics models simulate dynamic systems in the real world, giving the ability to simulate what could happen in the future and understand the impact on multiple key metrics [5]. Meanwhile, DES assists administrators in making informed facility design decisions prior to making actual investments in renovations and new projects [6].…”

Assessment of COVID-19 impact on sustainable development goals indicators in Egypt using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process

“…The Egyptian government has taken numerous countermeasures to mitigate the influence of the COVID-19 outbreak on human health. Examples of these strategies were practicing social distancing, imposing a curfew, allowing work/study from home, and delegating isolation sections in health facilities [ 7 , 8 ]. However, these policies were associated with a significant economic decline.…”