Modeling damage accumulation during ground-motion sequences for portfolio seismic loss assessments

Iacoletti, Salvatore; Cremen, Gemma; Galasso, Carmine

doi:10.1016/j.soildyn.2023.107821

Cited by 10 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…The ESRM20 vulnerability mapping file is available at https://gitlab.seismo.ethz.ch/efehr/esrm20/-/blob/main/Vulnerability/esr-m20_exposure_vulnerability_mapping.csv, last accessed 28 September 2022. The ESRM20 capacity curves used to calibrate the vulnerability models (Iacoletti et al, 2023) are available at https://gitlab. seismo.ethz.ch/efehr/esrm20_vulnerability/-/tree/master/ESRM20_capacity_curves, last accessed 28 September 2022.…”

Section: Declaration Of Conflicting Interestsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…which reached a certain d s j damage state during previous ground motions). In this approach, the annual ground-up losses of each asset cannot exceed their replacement cost (see Iacoletti et al, 2023, for more details).…”

Section: Event-based Time-dependent Earthquake Risk Assessment Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These models have been developed based on the energy-based probabilistic seismic demand model by Gentile and Galasso (2021), which is a physically consistent model that accounts for the accumulation of damage (even though it is solely based on numerical analyses and requires further experimental/field validation). The IM associated with each state-dependent and single-ground-motion vulnerability model is the average spectral acceleration at a range of periods of interest (which vary for each building type), calculated from the capacity curve associated with each taxonomy (Iacoletti et al, 2023; Martins and Silva, 2021). Each state-dependent vulnerability model is conditional on the previous d s j reached, ranging from d s 0 to d s 3 , representing no ( d s 0 ) , slight ( d s 1 ) , moderate ( d s 2 ) , or extensive ( d s 3 ) damage (Iacoletti et al, 2023).…”

Section: Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Investigating the sensitivity of losses to time-dependent components of seismic risk modeling

Iacoletti,

Cremen,

Galasso

2024

Earthquake Spectra

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Conventional earthquake risk modeling involves several notable simplifications, which neglect: (1) the effects on seismicity of interactions between adjacent faults and the long-term elastic rebound behavior of faults; (2) short-term hazard increases associated with aftershocks; and (3) the accumulation of damage in assets due to the occurrence of multiple earthquakes in a short time window, without repairs. Several recent earthquake events (e.g. 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquakes, New Zealand; 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes, USA; and 2023 Turkey–Syria earthquakes) have emphasized the need for risk models to account for the aforementioned short- and long-term time-dependent characteristics of earthquake risk. This study specifically investigates the sensitivity of monetary loss (i.e. a possible earthquake-risk-model output) to these time dependencies, for a case-study portfolio in Central Italy. The investigation is intended to provide important insights for the catastrophe risk insurance and reinsurance industry. In addition to salient catastrophe risk insurance features, the end-to-end approach for time-dependent earthquake risk modeling used in this study incorporates recent updates in long-term time-dependent fault modeling, aftershock forecasting, and vulnerability modeling that accounts for damage accumulation. The sensitivity analysis approach presented may provide valuable guidance on the importance and appropriate treatment of time dependencies in regional (i.e. portfolio) earthquake risk models. We find that the long-term fault and aftershock occurrence models are the most crucial features of a time-dependent seismic risk model to constrain, at least for the monetary loss metrics examined in this study. Accounting for damage accumulation is also found to be important, if there is a high insurance deductible associated with portfolio assets.

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Section: Declaration Of Conflicting Interestsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Event-based Time-dependent Earthquake Risk Assessment Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Investigating the sensitivity of losses to time-dependent components of seismic risk modeling

Iacoletti,

Cremen,

Galasso

2024

Earthquake Spectra

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“…Such GMSs represent multiple ground shaking that may occur in the form of typical MS‐AS or even triggered events on nearby fault segments. A similar approach is adopted in this study, 50 consistently with the employed nonlinear analysis procedure (i.e., sequential cloud analysis) that relies on selecting ground motions covering a wide range of intensity levels without ensuring site‐specific hazard consistency.…”

Section: Archetype Frames and Ground‐motion Sequencesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Such GMSs represent multiple ground shaking that may occur in the form of typical MS-AS or even triggered events on nearby fault segments. A similar approach is adopted in this study, 50 consistently with the employed nonlinear analysis procedure (i.e., sequential cloud analysis) that relies on selecting ground motions covering a wide range of intensity levels without ensuring site-specific hazard consistency. Specifically, this study uses the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER) Center's NGA-West2 (Enhancement of Next Generation Attenuation Relationships for Western US) database 51,52 to assemble the GMS sets.…”

Section: Selection and Assembly Of Ground-motion Sequencesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic seismic performance assessment of steel moment‐resisting frames considering exposed column‐base plate connections with ductile anchor rods

Song

Hassan

Kanvinde

et al. 2023

Earthq Engng Struct Dyn

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This paper presents a numerical study assessing the seismic performance of steel moment‐resisting frames (SMRFs) designed with ductile exposed column‐base plate (ECBP) connections employing yielding anchor rods. For their potential use as weak bases, the proposed ECBP detail is designed to accommodate plastic deformations in the anchors. The seismic performance of 2‐ and 4‐story archetype SMRFs with ECBPs is investigated to examine the effects of various base‐connection strengths on the frame collapse mechanisms and probabilities. To this aim, the ECBP connections of each frame are designed for a set of three strength levels, ranging from reduced seismic loads to capacity‐designed forces of the adjoining columns. These designs enable the base responses to vary from highly inelastic (i.e., weak‐base design) to elastic (i.e., strong‐base design) when subjected to earthquake‐induced ground shaking. Nonlinear time history analysis (NLTHA) is extensively performed, applying a suite of assembled ground‐motion sequences (i.e., two ground motions in series) to assess the ECBP connection response and the corresponding frame behavior. Fragility analyses accounting for only the first ground motions in each considered sequence (to derive fragility curves), and the entire ground‐motion sequences (to derive fragility surfaces) are also performed to evaluate the probabilities of frame collapse and base connection failure. Finally, key findings regarding the seismic performance of ductile ECBP connections and their effects on the frame collapse are discussed. The limitations of the study are also outlined.

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Fragility functions for non-ductile infilled reinforced concrete buildings using next-generation intensity measures based on analytical models and empirical data from past earthquakes

Nafeh,

O’Reilly

2024

Bull Earthquake Eng

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Modeling damage accumulation during ground-motion sequences for portfolio seismic loss assessments

Cited by 10 publications

References 51 publications

Investigating the sensitivity of losses to time-dependent components of seismic risk modeling

Investigating the sensitivity of losses to time-dependent components of seismic risk modeling

Probabilistic seismic performance assessment of steel moment‐resisting frames considering exposed column‐base plate connections with ductile anchor rods

Fragility functions for non-ductile infilled reinforced concrete buildings using next-generation intensity measures based on analytical models and empirical data from past earthquakes

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