Modeling Ecosystem Regulation Services and Performing Cost–Benefit Analysis for Climate Change Mitigation through Nature-Based Solutions Using InVEST Models

Abstract

Climate change and land degradation menace ecosystem sustainability. This study assessed the effectiveness of integrating nature-based solutions (NBSs); soil and water conservation techniques, agroforestry, and reforestation, to mitigate these impacts. Focusing on carbon storage and sediment retention at the watershed level (Sidi Barrak), the InVEST model quantified changes from 1990 to 2050 under the Business as Usual (BAU) and management scenarios. The results showed a significant decrease in sediment retention and carbon storage from 19.25 to 15.5 t ha−1year−1 and from 1.72 to 1.61 t ha−1year−1, respectively, between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, BAU scenario projections demonstrate a 28% decrease in sediment retention and a 16% drop in carbon storage under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5. The Management scenarios indicate substantial improvements, with carbon storage increasing by 77% and sediment retention by 87% when all strategies were combined. The economic valuation, performed through the application of the cost–benefit analysis, shows positive net benefit values (NPVs) for the different NBS management scenarios. The combined management scenario, which includes soil and water conservation techniques, agroforestry, and reforestation under the same scenario, presents the highest total NPV with 11.4 M€ (2%, 2050), an average of 130 €/ha (2%, 2050), and an opportunity cost of 1.7 M€ compared to BAU. Such results may orient decision-making by providing solid arguments toward ecosystem resilience and climate change mitigation.