Modeling flash floods in southern France for road management purposes

Vincendon, Béatrice; Edouard, Simon; Dewaele, Hélène; Ducrocq, Véronique; Lespinas, Franck; Delrieu, Guy; Anquetin, Sandrine

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.05.054

Cited by 30 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…The points are quite well organised along the bisectrix with the HEC-HMS model. Note that , 2007, 2009, 2015), while ISBA-TOP has been run without any previous calibration task as described by Vincendon et al (2016), but by using an spatial estimation of the initial soil moisture. Note that the initially dry soils and high infiltration capacities of these semi-arid catchments enhance the nonlinear response of runoff to intense precipitation and large rainfall amounts.…”

Section: Hydrological Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…1). For both catchments, we have implemented two event-based models : (i) the semi-distributed and conceptual-based HEC-HMS model (USACE-HEC, 2000) and; (ii) the fully-distributed and physically-based ISBA-TOP model (Bouilloud et al, 2010;Vincendon et al, 2010Vincendon et al, , 2016.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This ISBA-TOP original version has recently been improved so as to obtain satisfactory results without a calibration of the parameters. They are defined through pedotransfert functions (Vincendon et al, 2016). Reservoirs and diversion elements have been considered on the same basis as described in section 3.2.1.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Flash-flood forecasting in two Spanish Mediterranean catchments: a comparison of distinct hydrometeorological ensemble prediction strategies

Vincendon

Amengual

2017

Preprint

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Abstract. Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPSs) are becoming more and more popular methods to deal with the meteorological and hydrological uncertainties that affect discharge forecasts. These uncertainties are particularly difficult to handle when dealing with Mediterranean flash-flood forecasting as many hydrological and meteorological factors take place and precipitation comes from small scale convective systems. In this work, the performances of distinct HEPS are compared for two heavy precipitation events that affected two different semi-arid Spanish Mediterranean catchments : the 5 cases of the 03 November 2011 on the Llobregat River in Catalonia, and the 28 September 2012 on the Guadalentín River near in Murcia. The latter case corresponds to the eighth Intense Observing Period (IOP8) of HYMEX field campaign. The uncertainty on quantitative precipitation forecasting is sampled by using two different convection-permitting meteorological ensemble generation strategies. The first EPS strategy consists in dynamically downscaling the ECMWF-EPS directly by means of the WRF model, whereas the second is based on the AROME-WMED model. Its deterministic QPFs are perturbed based 10 on a previous rainfall forecast error climatology and by using the probability density functions of the errors, in term of total amounts and location of the heaviest rainfalls. The population of both ensembles is of 50 members, which are used to drive the semi-distributed and conceptual HEC-HMS and the fully distributed and physically-based ISBA-TOP hydrological models.For each HEPS, the performance is assessed in term of the quantitative discharge forecasts. The results point out the benefits of using (i) a hydrological model when evaluating highly-variable and convective-driven precipitation fields and (ii) an EPS 15 to better encompass these uncertainties arising from the different elements of the HEPS. Issues about the optimal number of ensemble members and impact of the ensemble forecasting lead time are addressed for optimal flash-flood forecasting purposes as well.

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Section: Hydrological Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Flash-flood forecasting in two Spanish Mediterranean catchments: a comparison of distinct hydrometeorological ensemble prediction strategies

Vincendon

Amengual

2017

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…1). For both catchments, we have implemented two event-based models : (i) the semi-distributed and conceptual-based HEC-HMS model (USACE-HEC, 2000) and; (ii) the fully-distributed and physically-based ISBA-TOP model (Bouilloud et al,20 2010; Vincendon et al, 2010Vincendon et al, , 2016.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…4) that is better with HEC-HMS model. Note that HEC-HMS was previously calibrated and validated by using observed streamflow and precipitation data for both river basins Amengual et al (2007Amengual et al ( , 2009Amengual et al ( , 2015, while ISBA-TOP has been run without any previous calibration task as described by Vincendon et al (2016). Thus, ISBA-TOP has been initialized by using an spatial estimation of the initial soil moisture.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Flash-flood forecasting in two Spanish Mediterranean catchments: a comparison of distinct hydrometeorological ensemble prediction strategies

Vincendon

Amengual

2017

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPSs) are becoming more and more popular methods to deal with the meteorological and hydrological uncertainties that affect discharge forecasts. These uncertainties are particularly difficult to handle when dealing with Mediterranean flash-flood forecasting as many hydrological and meteorological factors take place and precipitation comes from small scale convective systems. In this work, the performances of distinct HEPS are compared for two heavy precipitation events that affected two different semi-arid Spanish Mediterranean catchments : the cases of the The latter case corresponds to the IOP8 of HYMEX field campaign. The uncertainty on quantitative precipitation forecasting is sampled by using two different meteorological ensemble generation strategies. First, a convection-permitting EPS, which consists in dynamically downscaling the ECMWF-EPS directly by means of the WRF model. The second EPS strategy is based on the AROME-WMED convective-scale model. Its deterministic QPFs are perturbed based on a previous rainfall 10 forecast error climatology and by using the probability density functions of the errors, in term of total amounts and location of the heaviest rainfalls. The population of both ensembles is of 50 members, which are used to drive the HEC-HMS and ISBA-TOP hydrological models. For each HEPS, the performance is assessed in term of the quantitative discharge forecasts.The results point out the benefits of using (i) a hydrological model when evaluating highly-variable and convective-driven precipitation fields and (ii) an EPS to better encompass these uncertainties arising from different level of the HEPS. Issues 15 about the optimal number of ensemble members and impact of the ensemble forecasting lead time are addressed for optimal flash-flood forecasting purposes as well.

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Investigating sea‐state effects on flash flood hydrograph and inundation forecasting

Papaioannou

Varlas

Λουκάς

et al. 2021

Hydrological Processes

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A common source of uncertainty in flood inundation forecasting is the hydrograph used.Given the role of sea-air-hydro-land chain processes on the water cycle, flood hydrographs in coastal areas can be indirectly affected by sea state. This study investigates sea-state effects on precipitation, discharge, and flood inundation forecasting implementing atmospheric, ocean wave, hydrological, and hydraulic-hydrodynamic coupled models. The Chemical Hydrological Atmospheric Ocean wave System (CHAOS) was used for coupled hydro-meteorological-wave simulations 'accounting' or 'not accounting' the impact of sea state on precipitation and, subsequently, on flood hydrograph. CHAOS includes the WRF-Hydro hydrological model and the WRF-ARW meteorological model two-way coupled with the WAM wave model through the OASIS3-MCT coupler. Subsequently, the 2D HEC-RAS hydraulic-hydrodynamic model was forced by the flood hydrographs and map the inundated areas. A flash flood event occurred on 15 November 2017 in Mandra, Attica, Greece, causing 24 fatalities, and damages was selected as case study. The calibration of models was performed exploiting historical flood records and previous studies. Human interventions such as hydraulic works and the urban areas were included in the hydraulic modelling geometry domain.The representation of the resistance caused by buildings was based on Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) data while the local elevation rise method was used in the urban-flood simulation. The flood extent results were assessed using the Critical Success Index (CSI), and CSI penalize. Integrating sea-state affected the forecast of precipitation and discharge peaks, causing up to +24% and from −8% to +36% differences, respectively, improving inundation forecast by 4.5% and flooding additional approximately 70 building blocks. The precipitation forcing time step was also highlighted as significant factor in such a small-scale flash flood. The integrated multidisciplinary methodological approach could be adopted in operational forecasting for civil protection applications facilitating the protection of socio-economic activities and human lives during similar future events.

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Modeling flash floods in southern France for road management purposes

Cited by 30 publications

References 65 publications

Flash-flood forecasting in two Spanish Mediterranean catchments: a comparison of distinct hydrometeorological ensemble prediction strategies

Flash-flood forecasting in two Spanish Mediterranean catchments: a comparison of distinct hydrometeorological ensemble prediction strategies

Flash-flood forecasting in two Spanish Mediterranean catchments: a comparison of distinct hydrometeorological ensemble prediction strategies

Investigating sea‐state effects on flash flood hydrograph and inundation forecasting

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