Modeling guides groundwater management in a basin with river–aquifer interactions

Foglia, Laura; Neumann, Jakob; Tolley, D. G.; Orloff, Steve B.; Snyder, Richard L.; Harter, Thomas

doi:10.3733/ca.2018a0011

Cited by 10 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…This is similar to the distributed evaluation of local sensitivity analysis methodology proposed by Rakovec et al () and the use of multiple sensitivity indices (e.g., variance based and local sensitivity) by Borgonovo et al (), although less rigorous to preserve computational efficiency. Starting values for the different sensitivity runs (Table ) were selected either from a previous model calibration using the river package (RIV; Harbaugh, ; Foglia et al, ) or from within an expected range based on professional judgment. Parameters were log‐transformed and increased by 1% from their starting values for all sensitivity analyses.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity Analysis and Calibration of an Integrated Hydrologic Model in an Irrigated Agricultural Basin With a Groundwater‐Dependent Ecosystem

Tolley

Foglia

Harter

2019

Water Resources Research

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While sensitivity analysis and calibration are common practice in integrated hydrologic modeling, little work has been done to understand how the design of the sensitivity analysis and calibration affects the simulation outcome in these often highly nonlinear models. This is especially true for irrigated agricultural basins with a strong connection between land use, groundwater, and surface water. Using a range rather than a single set of initial parameter values, multiple sensitivity analyses, calibrations, and linearity tests were performed using UCODE_2014 on the Scott Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model. Calibration results show that parameters related to crop demand and applied irrigation water are most sensitive. Influence statistics show that low streamflow observations provide the most information during model calibration, indicating preference should be given to these observations during model development, sensitivity analysis, and calibration. Importantly, due to the nonlinearity of the integrated model, significant differences are found in results when initial parameter values are sampled from within their respective expected ranges. Estimates for some parameters varied up to an order of magnitude between calibrations, while all produced similar final objective function values, groundwater elevations, and stream flow. Confidence intervals for individual sensitivity analyses and calibration runs only spanned a fraction of the ensemble estimated parameter range across multiple runs. Our work suggests that a calibration design with multiple sensitivity analyses and calibrations of integrated hydrologic models, each using one of several widely varying sets of initial values, provides a frugal approach to identify parameters across the global parameter space.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity Analysis and Calibration of an Integrated Hydrologic Model in an Irrigated Agricultural Basin With a Groundwater‐Dependent Ecosystem

Tolley

Foglia

Harter

2019

Water Resources Research

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“…The research presented by Foglia [12] showed that there would not be a big difference in the boundary balance. However, it showed that the "exchange of water between surface water and groundwater was about three times larger in MODFLOW-RIV than MODFLOW-SFR".…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…In order to show new strategies to optimise the computational cost, Foglia [12] offers an exciting procedure in a case study located in Scott Valley in California. This research presents an example of environmental goals at the Scott River, which must keep a specific ecologic flow because it is an important salmon spawning habitat.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, it showed that the "exchange of water between surface water and groundwater was about three times larger in MODFLOW-RIV than MODFLOW-SFR". The interesting aspect of the Foglia [12] approach is that he showed MODFLOW packages included by default in MODFLOW for the development of the integrated model of surface water and groundwater and not external packages in contrast to the previous authors, who integrated external tools to MODFLOW.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Other studies that involved the roles of exchange flow in the hyporheic zone regarding nutrient transport, organic matter, and biogeochemical processing in rivers have been carried out [16]. In the same line, other researchers paired a MODFLOW model with MT3D (United States Geological Survey, Reston, VA, USA) to simulate hyporheic zones transport around debris dams and meander along a semi-arid stream [12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modelling of Groundwater–Surface Water Interaction Applying the Hyporheic Flux Model

Díaz

Sinicyn

Grodzka-Łukaszewska

2020

Water

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The objective of the present paper is to develop a methodology that could allow the representation of the analytical hyporheic flux equation model (AHF) in a numerical model done in MODFLOW. Therefore, the scope of the research is to show the viability of the methodology suggested in a real case (Biebrza river, Poland, Europe). Considering that the model requires extensive manipulation in the creation of the packages, a test phase through the seepage package of MODFLOW is carried out with the aim of representing the river package of MODFLOW. FloPy is the tool chosen to develop this implementation due to the versatility of manipulating the packages available in MODFLOW through coding. The obtained results showed a correct implementation of the AHF model using the example of the Biebrza River. The results obtained will enable a better understanding regarding the modelling of the interaction between the river and the aquifer, considering streams with specific geometries where the depth is dimensionally higher than the width.

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Modeling Seasonal Effects of River Flow on Water Temperatures in an Agriculturally Dominated California River

Asarian

Robinson

Genzoli

2023

Preprint

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Low streamflows can increase vulnerability to warming, impacting coldwater fish. Water managers need tools to quantify these impacts and predict future water temperatures. Contrary to most statistical models’ assumptions, many seasonally changing factors (e.g., water sources and solar radiation) cause relationships between flow and water temperature to vary throughout the year. Using 21 years of air temperature and flow data, we modeled daily water temperatures in California’s snowmelt-driven Scott River where agricultural diversions consume most summer surface flows. We used generalized additive models to test time-varying and nonlinear effects of flow on water temperatures. Models that represented seasonally varying flow effects with intermediate complexity outperformed simpler models assuming constant relationships between water temperature and flow. Cross-validation error of the selected model was ≤1.2 °C. Flow variation had stronger effects on water temperatures in April–July than in other months. We applied the model to predict effects of instream flow scenarios proposed by regulatory agencies. Relative to historic conditions, the higher instream flow scenario would reduce annual maximum temperature from 25.2 °C to 24.1 °C, reduce annual exceedances of 22 °C (a cumulative thermal stress metric) from 106 to 51 degree-days, and delay onset of water temperatures >22 °C during some drought years. Testing the same modeling approach at nine additional sites showed similar accuracy and flow effects. These methods can be applied to streams with long-term flow and water temperature records to fill data gaps, identify periods of flow influence, and predict temperatures under flow management scenarios.

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Modeling guides groundwater management in a basin with river–aquifer interactions

Cited by 10 publications

References 20 publications

Sensitivity Analysis and Calibration of an Integrated Hydrologic Model in an Irrigated Agricultural Basin With a Groundwater‐Dependent Ecosystem

Sensitivity Analysis and Calibration of an Integrated Hydrologic Model in an Irrigated Agricultural Basin With a Groundwater‐Dependent Ecosystem

Modelling of Groundwater–Surface Water Interaction Applying the Hyporheic Flux Model

Modeling Seasonal Effects of River Flow on Water Temperatures in an Agriculturally Dominated California River

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