Modeling Land Suitability for Vitis vinifera in Michigan Using Advanced Geospatial Data and Methods

Abstract

Michigan (MI) has a long history of diverse agricultural production. One of the most rapidly expanding and profitable agricultural crops, wine grapes (Vitis vinifera L.), has only been in cultivation across MI since the 1970s. As of 2014 more than 2100 acres of Vitis vinifera were growing statewide. With such success there is a push to rapidly develop more vinifera vineyards across the state. The industry is striving to have 10,000 acres in cultivation by 2024. This study presents a data-driven approach for guiding decision making to make this goal attainable. The study models land suitability across the state using environmental, climate, topographic and land use data to understand the most to least ideal portions of the landscape for vinifera establishment. The models are tested in 17 MI counties. The study found that land suitability for viticulture has expanded and therefore, viticulture can be extended beyond the traditional growing areas. This study suggests that warming temperatures have influenced land suitability and demonstrates the application and utility of GIS-based land suitability modeling in viticulture development. Maps produced in this study provide knowledge of the climate and environmental trends, which is critical when choosing where and what cultivar to grow. With such resources, growers can be better prepared to invest and expand this pivotal agricultural sector.

Vitis vinifera Production in Michigan: Factors and Trends Driving Cultivation Patterns

“…Here, the growing season is defined as the period between budburst and the first fall frost ( Schultze et al, 2016b ). There also exists a variety of topographic characteristics in MI, such as the hilltops and ridgetops at relatively higher elevations, which help facilitate cold air drainage away from crops and offer some protection against freeze damage ( Wanyama et al, 2020 ). These topographic features, coupled with the effect of the Great Lakes, make it suitable for viticulture.…”

“…These topographic features, coupled with the effect of the Great Lakes, make it suitable for viticulture. For a more detailed description of the study area, please see Wanyama et al (2020) .…”

“…Literature was gathered from journal publications, university websites, and grape-grower handbooks describing the interrelationships between climate and wine grape production, and consequently land suitability for the cultivation of vinifera in MI. Major controlling factors, most of which are discussed in the previous study by Wanyama et al (2020) , include:…”

“…help facilitate cold air drainage away from crops and offer some protection against freeze damage (Wanyama et al, 2020). These topographic features, coupled with the effect of the Great Lakes, make it suitable for viticulture.…”

“…According to the Michigan Craft Beverage Council (n.d.) , an estimated 3,050 acres of land is currently under wine grape production. Yet, recent suitability modeling efforts in MI have found that land suitability for viticulture has expanded significantly beyond the traditional growing areas ( Wanyama et al, 2020 ). This increases the need for a more comprehensive understanding of climate factors that are driving the observed expansion in viticultural land suitability as well as those that pose serious threats.…”