Modeling Malaria Prevalence Rate in Lagos State Using Multivariate Environmental Variations

Abstract

The aim of this research is to establish the significant effect of environmental factors on malaria prevalence rate within the Local Government Areas of Lagos State. The methodology used was to carry out a statistical analysis of these various environmental factors with the malaria prevalence cases that was recorded in Lagos State using a 5 years data from 2009-2013 of malaria prevalence cases recorded with environmental data for the same time frame, and to further use GIS to show the various Local Government Areas with high severe malaria cases as well as low malaria cases. The result obtained from this analysis shows a significant relationship between the malaria prevalence cases and environmental factors of rainfall, temperature and relative humidity, this helped in developing a predictive model. The outcome from this research work can help the government, Lagos State Ministry of Health and donor agencies both local and international see the Local Government Areas within the state that are most vulnerable to malaria epidemic, and further aid them in policy formation, planning and strategy implementation.

Investigating the relationship between climatic factors and malaria transmission dynamics in Southwest states of Nigeria

“…The outcomes showed distinct patterns of malaria morbidity across the different states in the Southwest zone. These findings corroborate prior investigations studying the relationship between meteorological factors and malaria morbidity countrywide (8,17,18,23). Importantly, however, this study is the first in the region showing the connection between malaria cases and weather variations across the Southwest states at both spatial and temporal dimensions using data from a single source (DHIS2).…”

“…by Omogunloye et al(17) also show that maximum temperatures were statistically significant with malaria prevalence in different local government areas in Lagos State, which correlate with findings in this study. Likewise, the findings for the current study have been shown to be similar to those conducted in Jos and Kano states (23), where it was found that the association between malaria incidence and local weather varies at different lag times and direction.…”

“…A few studies have investigated the connections among rainfall, temperature, and malaria incidence at a smaller scale within local government areas, focusing on specific states in the country (17)(18)(19). This study seeks to explore the influence of rainfall and temperature on confirmed uncomplicated malaria cases across each state of the Southwest zone of Nigeria using time series analysis.…”

Malaria and HIV Infection among Febrile Patients in a Large Area of Southwestern Nigeria

“…There were over 60,000 cases of malaria in Ikeja in 2013. 18 The closeness of the city to Lagos Lagoon and the poor drainage system found in some of its areas could provide suitable breeding sites for mosquito malaria parasite vectors, enabling stable transmission of malaria. As far as HIV/AIDS is concerned, its transmission is largely associated with large population sizes and fluid movement of people in and out of the state.…”