Modeling Malthusian Dynamics in Pre-Industrial Societies

Nefedov, Sergey A.

doi:10.21237/c7clio4221335

Cited by 8 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…In this case, the population growth was already limited by environmental opportunities (the amount of land and other resources, as well as the increased risk of epidemics, conflicts, etc.) (see, e.g., Chu and Lee 1994;Nefedov 2013Nefedov , 2014bKorotayev and Khaltourina 2006;Korotayev et al 2011;Lee and Zhang 2010;Korotayev, Zinkina, and Andreev 2016). Sometimes, due to some technological innovations and development of new territories, the ecological niche expanded dramatically and the population increased considerably (as was the case in Sung China in the eleventh century AD, when, thanks to the development of the South, new varieties of rice and other technological innovations, the population almost doubled from 60 million to 100 (see Kychanov 1986;Lapina 2002;Korotayev and Khaltourina 2006;McNeill 2013;Zhao and Drechsler 2018).…”

Section: The Craft-agrarian Production Principlementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Sooner or later, the land became scarce. Social tension would increase in the context of lack of land and resources, and increasing taxes and injustice (see, e.g., Usher 1989;Nefedov 2004Nefedov , 2014aKorotayev and Komarova 2004;Grinin and Korotayev 2012b;Goldstone 2016;Korotayev 2017).…”

Section: The Craft-agrarian Production Principlementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus, partial overcoming of limitations on the basis of a technological breakthrough led to the emergence of long-term (from several decades to two to three hundred years) demographic cycles: as a result of rapid population growth, a country or region fell into the so-called Malthusian trap (Malthus 1798;Artzrouni and Komlos 1985;Steinmann and Komlos 1998;Kögel and Prskawetz 2001;Komlos and Artzrouni 1990;Wood 1998;Korotayev, Zinkina et al 2011;Korotayev, Malkov, and Grinin 2014;Zinkina and Korotayev 2014;Korotayev, Zinkina, Goldstone et al 2016;Korotayev and Zinkina 2014, 2022, social tension arose due to the land scarcity, increasing poverty and considerable stratification. As a result, society entered a period of catastrophes and disasters (for details see Nefedov 2007;Korotayev 2006;Korotayev, Komarova and Khaltourina 2007;Grinin 2011а;Grinin and Korotayev 2012b;Usher 1989;Chu and Lee 1994;Komlos and Nefedov 2002;Nefedov 2004Nefedov , 2013Nefedov , 2014aNefedov , 2014bKorotayev and Komarova 2004;Korotayev and Khaltourina 2006;Turchin and Nefedov 2009;Malkov 2009;Korotayev, Zinkina et al 2011;Lee and Zhang 2010;Korotayev, Zinkina, and Andreev 2016;Goldstone 2016;Korotayev 2017; see also Borsch 2004...…”

Section: The Craft-agrarian Production Principlementioning

confidence: 99%

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Demographic Transformations in the Historical Process in the Light of Technological Development: Theoretical Approach

Grinin,

Grinin

2023

SEH

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The analysis of the demographic component and of the demographic dimension of historical process has unfortunately not been sufficiently studied in the social sciences. The demographic development of humankind is even more rarely studied in its close connection with technological development. However, this is an extremely important aspect that can not only explain essential dimensions of the development, but also provide a basis for explaining current processes and forecasting our futures. Moreover, in many ways, it is an integral aspect of analysis, because it focuses on people, the population, that is the main subject of society and humanity. Accordingly, the changes in demographic parameters (both quantitative and qualitative) have an impact on the entire social system, from technology to ideology as well as on the World System at whole. Population growth is undoubtedly the most important driving force of the development of society. The most important subsystem of society, which constitutes its material basis, combines population and production. The link between demography and production is seemingly obvious, since, on the one hand, production determines population growth opportunities and, on the other hand, population size affects the production and other opportunities of a society. However, this relationship is not so simple and is also non-linear, and in addition, the correlation between the demographic and production components of societies changes significantly over the course of the historical process. It is also not always so easy to explain strong fluctuations and transformations in population dynamics. In the present study, the authors provide an analysis of the demographic development of humankind in its close connection with technological development, including the twenty-first century trends. This work, consisting of two articles, aims to provide a theoretical framework for the correlation between the development of production and technology, on the one hand, and demographic transformations, on the other, during the historical process, and to describe all major demographic transformations during human history. The work describes the historical types of population reproduction (TPR) and the reasons for their change. All this makes it possible to make a forecast about the vectors and main features of the coming demographic transformation in the twenty-first century. This (first) article describes theoretical approaches and models of the connection between production revolutions (Agrarian, Industrial and Cybernetic) and the largest demographic transformations, and also reflects important points influencing on population growth and its limitatio-ns. It is shown that the production revolution and the development of the production principle cycle in general change the type of population reproduction, and together they provide the most powerful impulse for the qualitative reorganization of the entire social structure and social relations and further world-system configurations. The authors conclude that every production revolution is followed by a fundamental change in demography. And vice versa, population growth causes such changes in society and inter-societal relations, communications and diffusion of innovations that it greatly accelerates technological development. However, there are many nuances and external inconsistencies in this correlation that require explanation. The latter are given in the second article, which also makes predictions about future demographic transformations.

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Section: The Craft-agrarian Production Principlementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Craft-agrarian Production Principlementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Craft-agrarian Production Principlementioning

confidence: 99%

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Demographic Transformations in the Historical Process in the Light of Technological Development: Theoretical Approach

Grinin,

Grinin

2023

SEH

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“…(2013), en donde la capacidad de carga era explicada mediante la disponibilidad del agua dulce, y se concluía que la K mundial no es constante, sino que se adapta a factores externos, pero depende de un tamaño dinámico de la población. Sin embargo, estudios han concluido que ocasionalmente las poblaciones humanas tienen inexistentes tasas de crecimiento, con lo cual se puede afirmar que la población aún se encuentra muy por debajo de K (Nefedov, 2013).…”

Section: Modelo General Maltusiano De Crecimiento Poblacionalunclassified

Tasa de natalidad y el ingreso como determinantes de la pobreza

Barzola

Palacios

2017

visionempresarial

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La reducción de la pobreza significa un gran desafío para todos los países a nivel mundial. Por ello, el objetivo del presente artículo es analizar cómo se pueden clasificar a los países según su grado de pobreza a través de cuatro variables independientes: tasa de natalidad, tasa de mortalidad, PIB per cápita y PNB per cápita, basados en el modelo Maltusiano de población. La clasificación original se realizó de acuerdo con el Método Atlas del Banco Mundial de 2013, en el cual basado en su PNB per cápita se clasifican entre países ricos o pobres. Desde aquella clasificación se implementa un análisis discriminante con la finalidad de identificar las características que diferencian a cada grupo para poder encasillarlos adecuadamente en países ricos o pobres. El modelo resulta robusto indicando una correlación positiva entre tasa de natalidad y pobreza mientras que con el PIB y PNB per cápita la correlación es negativa.

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