Modeling modern glacier response to climate changes along the <scp>A</scp>ndes <scp>C</scp>ordillera: A multiscale review

Fernández, Alfonso; Mark, Bryan G.

doi:10.1002/2015ms000482

Cited by 34 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 178 publications

(343 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…These efforts have largely been focused on individual highly glacierized river basins (e.g., Finger et al, ; Jost et al, ; Ragettli et al, ) and more recently at the global scale (e.g., Huss & Hock, ; Schaner et al, ). Less attention has been given to regional hydrological responses to warming using detailed analyses of both glacierized and nonglacierized portions of watersheds outside of the High Mountain Asia and Andes regions (e.g., Baraer et al, ; Fernández & Mark, ; Immerzeel et al, ; Lutz et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Glacier Recession and the Response of Summer Streamflow in the Pacific Northwest United States, 1960–2099

Frans

Istanbulluoglu

Lettenmaier

et al. 2018

Water Resources Research

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Pacific Northwest is the most highly glacierized region in the conterminous United States (858 glaciers; 466 km2). These glaciers have displayed ubiquitous patterns of retreat since the 1980s mostly in response to warming air temperatures. Glacier melt provides water for downstream uses including agricultural water supply, hydroelectric power generation, and for ecological systems adapted to cold reliable streamflow. While changes in glacier area have been studied within the region over an extended period of time, the hydrologic consequences of these changes are not well defined. We applied a high‐resolution glacio‐hydrological model to predict glacier mass balance, glacier area, and river discharge for the period 1960–2099. Six river basins across the region were modeled to characterize the regional hydrological response to glacier change. Using these results, we generalized past and future glacier area change and discharge across the entire Pacific Northwest using a k‐means cluster analysis. Results show that the rate of regional glacier recession will increase, but the runoff from glacier melt and its relative contribution to streamflow display both positive and negative trends. In high‐elevation river basins enhanced glacier melt will buffer strong declines in seasonal snowpack and decreased late summer streamflow, before the glaciers become too small to support streamflow at historic levels later in the 21st century. Conversely, in lower‐elevation basins, smaller snowpack and the shrinkage of small glaciers result in continued reductions in summer streamflow.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Glacier Recession and the Response of Summer Streamflow in the Pacific Northwest United States, 1960–2099

Frans

Istanbulluoglu

Lettenmaier

et al. 2018

Water Resources Research

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…A more in-depth discussion and critical review of the various approaches linking climate with glacier and runoff modeling at various spatial and temporal scales in the Andes can be found in Fernandez and Mark (2016). A particularly noteworthy point raised in their review is the suggestion to perform glacio-hydrologic intercomparison studies at specific sites with good data coverage.…”

Section: Hydrologic (Water Supply-side) Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rapid decline of snow and ice in the tropical Andes – Impacts, uncertainties and challenges ahead

Vuille

Carey

Huggel

et al. 2018

Earth-Science Reviews

258

213

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Glaciers in the tropical Andes have been retreating for the past several decades, leading to a temporary increase in dry season water supply downstream. Projected future glacier shrinkage, however, will lead to a long-term reduction in dry season river discharge from glacierized catchments. This glacier retreat is closely related to the observed increase in high-elevation, surface air temperature in the region. Future projections using a simple freezing level height-equilibrium-line altitude scaling approach suggest that glaciers in the inner tropics, such as Antizana in Ecuador, may be most vulnerable to future warming while glaciers in the more arid outer tropics, such as Zongo in Bolivia, may persist, albeit in a smaller size, throughout the 21st century regardless of emission scenario. Nonetheless many uncertainties persist, most notably problems with accurate snowfall measurements in the glacier accumulation zone, uncertainties in establishing accurate thickness measurements on glaciers, unknown future changes associated with local-scale circulation and cloud cover affecting glacier energy balance, the role of aerosols and in particular black carbon deposition on Andean glaciers, and the role of groundwater and aquifers interacting with glacier meltwater.The reduction in water supply for export-oriented agriculture, mining, hydropower production and human consumption are the most commonly discussed concerns associated with glacier retreat, but many other aspects including glacial hazards, tourism and recreation, and ecosystem integrity are also affected by glacier retreat. Social and political problems surrounding water allocation for subsistence farming have led to conflicts due to lack of adequate water governance. Local water management practices in many regions reflect cultural belief systems, perceptions and spiritual values and glacier retreat in some places is seen as a threat to these local livelihoods.Comprehensive adaptation strategies, if they are to be successful, therefore need to consider science, policy, culture and practice, and involve local populations. Planning needs to be based not only on future scenarios derived from physically-based numerical models, but must also consider societal needs, economic agendas, political conflicts, socioeconomic inequality and cultural values. This review elaborates on the need for adaptation as well as the challenges and constraints many adaptation projects are faced with, and lays out future directions where opportunities exist to develop successful, culturally acceptable and sustainable adaptation strategies.

show abstract

“…The accuracy of a temperature index glacier melt model for tropical glaciers can be uncertain due to uncaptured effects of solar radiation, cloud cover, humidity, topography, and aspect (Hock, 1999(Hock, , 2005Pellicciotti et al, 2005;Sicart et al, 2008;Huss et al, 2009;Gabbi et al, 2014;Fernández and Mark, 2016). However, it remains the most feasible approach to estimate melt in poorly instrumented watersheds given its simplicity and limited field data requirement compared to an energy balance approach (Hock, 2005;Fernández and Mark, 2016;Reveillet et al, 2017). The melt simulated with the temperature index model was added to the precipitation amount for the Flux-PIHM forcing inputs.…”

Section: Integrated Hydrologic Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-scale temporal variability in meltwater contributions in a tropical glacierized watershed

Saberi¹,

McLaughlin²,

Ng³

et al. 2018

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Climate models predict amplified warming at high elevations in low latitudes, making tropical glacierized regions some of the most vulnerable hydrological systems in the world. Observations reveal decreasing streamflow due to retreating glaciers in the Andes, which hold 99% of all tropical glaciers. However, the timescales over which meltwater contributes to streamflow and the pathways it takes -surface and subsurface -remain uncertain, hindering our ability to predict how shrinking glaciers will impact water resources. Two major contributors to this uncertainty are the sparsity of hydrologic mea-5 surements in tropical glacierized watersheds and the complication of hydrograph separation where there is year-round glacier melt. We address these challenges using a multi-method approach that employs repeat hydrochemical mixing model analysis, hydroclimatic time series analysis, and integrated watershed modeling. Each of these approaches interrogates distinct timescale relationships among meltwater, groundwater, and stream discharge. Our results challenge the commonly held conceptual model that glaciers buffer discharge variability. Instead, in a sub-humid watershed on Volcán Chimborazo, Ecuador, meltwater drives 10 nearly all the variability in discharge (Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.89 in simulations), with glaciers contributing a broad range of 20-60% or wider of discharge, mostly (86%) through surface runoff on hourly timescales, but also through infiltration that increases annual groundwater contributions by nearly 20%. We further found that rainfall may enhance melt contributions to discharge at timescales that complement melt generation, possibly explaining why minimum discharge occurred at the study site during warm but dry El Niño conditions, which typically heighten melt in the Andes. Our findings caution against extrap-15 olations from isolated measurements: stream discharge and meltwater contributions in tropical glacierized systems can change substantially at hourly to interannual timescales, due to climatic variability and surface to subsurface flow processes.

show abstract

Modeling modern glacier response to climate changes along the Andes Cordillera: A multiscale review

Cited by 34 publications

References 178 publications

Glacier Recession and the Response of Summer Streamflow in the Pacific Northwest United States, 1960–2099

Glacier Recession and the Response of Summer Streamflow in the Pacific Northwest United States, 1960–2099

Rapid decline of snow and ice in the tropical Andes – Impacts, uncertainties and challenges ahead

Multi-scale temporal variability in meltwater contributions in a tropical glacierized watershed

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About