Modeling schedule overrun and cost escalation percentages of highway projects using fuzzy approach

Abstract

Purpose Modeling represents the art of translating problems from an application area into tractable mathematical formulations whose theoretical and numerical analysis provides insight, answers and guidance useful for the originating application. The purpose of this paper is to determine the causal causes of schedule overrun and cost escalation of highway projects in Egypt in order to be used as independents variables in mathematical models for predicting the percentages of schedule overrun and cost escalation of such projects in Egypt. Design/methodology/approach A survey of a randomly selected samples yielded responses from 40 owners, 15 consultants and 56 contractors. The survey includes 38 schedule overrun factors and 26 cost escalation factors. The effectiveness degree of the identified factors has been identified by the triangle fuzzy approach. Findings The results of the survey show that “contractor’s technical staff is insufficient and ineligible to accomplish the project” is the most important cause of schedule overrun, while the major cause of cost escalation is inadequate preparation of the project concerning planning and execution. Originality/value The main contribution of this study is predicting the percentages of schedule overrun and cost escalation of highway projects in Egypt. Through the application of the linear regression analysis method and statistical fuzzy theory, four predictive models have been developed and it has been noted that the linear regression-based model shows prediction accuracy better than statistical fuzzy-based model in predicting percentages of schedule overrun and cost escalation.

Mitigation Measures for Significant Factors Instigating Cost Overrun in Highway Projects

“…Moreover, another research has been done by Ismail et al (2014) which interviews were conducted among experts and the factors of cost overrun identified were [18] According to Waithera and Susan (2017) studies, the main and major causes of cost overrun in construction of road projects in Kenya are project schedule, poor project management, project scope, government policies, resources and contract management [19]. A questionnaire survey was conducted by Abu El-Maaty et al (2017) to know the main causes of cost overrun in road project were technical staff at contractor, inadequate planning and preparation of project planning and execution [20].…”

Causes of road projects' delays: a case of Blantyre, Malawi

“…Again, Durdyev et al 's (2017) study identified inadequate material on-site and site hazard risks due to a lack of safety measures as the leading causes of project delays in Cambodia. Abu El-Maaty et al (2017) established that factors primarily affecting the delay of projects were construction material shortage and changes of the type of material during project execution. Again, Kazemi et al (2021) and Famiyeh et al (2017) mentioned equipment inefficiencies, contractor feeble project management and contractors underestimating project complexity contributing to project delays.…”

Modelling of Time, Cost and Risk of Construction With Using Fuzzy Logic

“…Sharma and Goyal (2019) developed a fuzzy based model to estimate the risk magnitude of 55 important risk factors causing cost overrun in Indian construction projects. Models of cost overrun prediction based on the fuzzy logic were also developed by Knight and Fayek (2002), Dikmen et al (2007), Phama et al (2020), Amadi and Higham (2017), El-Maaty et al (2017), Kim et al (2018), Plebankiewicz (2018), Plebankiewicz and Wieczorek (2020), Islam et al (2019).…”