Modeling speed restrictions to mitigate lethal collisions between ships and whales in the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary, USA

Wiley, David N.; Thompson, Michael; Pace, Richard M.; Levenson, Jake

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2011.05.007

Cited by 72 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…All previous estimates of risk to marine mammals by the shipping industry, and the resulting policy considerations, have employed relative probabilities, primarily due to the nature of the data available for vessels and whales that do not provide absolute measures of their elements per unit area and per unit time ). Increased knowledge of traffic systems through high-resolution AIS data can facilitate the formulation of routing amendments and allows compliance to be monitored (Fonnesbeck et al 2008, Lagueux et al 2011, Wiley et al 2011. With improved whale abundance estimates, these models are capable of providing time-varying and population-corrected strike PLATE 1.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In response, multi-institutional efforts have led to the implementation of vessel speed restrictions and vessel navigation regulations, and policies explicitly designed to help achieve the goal of a sustained, positive population growth rate (IMO 2003, 2006, 2008, NOAA 2008, Vanderlaan et al 2008, Lagueux et al 2011, Wiley et al 2011. One recent policy was the adoption by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) of a precedent-setting voluntary ''area to be avoided'' (AT-BA) by vessels in the Roseway Basin feeding habitat on the eastern Scotian Shelf (Fig.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Absolute probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes to North Atlantic right whales in Roseway Basin, Scotian Shelf

Hoop

Vanderlaan

Taggart

2012

Ecological Applications

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Abstract. Vessel strikes are the primary source of known mortality for the endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis). Multi-institutional efforts to reduce mortality associated with vessel strikes include vessel-routing amendments such as the International Maritime Organization voluntary ''area to be avoided'' (ATBA) in the Roseway Basin right whale feeding habitat on the southwestern Scotian Shelf. Though relative probabilities of lethal vessel strikes have been estimated and published, absolute probabilities remain unknown. We used a modeling approach to determine the regional effect of the ATBA, by estimating reductions in the expected number of lethal vessel strikes. This analysis differs from others in that it explicitly includes a spatiotemporal analysis of real-time transits of vessels through a population of simulated, swimming right whales. Combining automatic identification system (AIS) vessel navigation data and an observationally based whale movement model allowed us to determine the spatial and temporal intersection of vessels and whales, from which various probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes are derived. We estimate one lethal vessel strike every 0.775-2.07 years prior to ATBA implementation, consistent with and more constrained than previous estimates of every 2-16 years. Following implementation, a lethal vessel strike is expected every 41 years. When whale abundance is held constant across years, we estimate that voluntary vessel compliance with the ATBA results in an 82% reduction in the per capita rate of lethal strikes; very similar to a previously published estimate of 82% reduction in the relative risk of a lethal vessel strike. The models we developed can inform decision-making and policy design, based on their ability to provide absolute, population-corrected, time-varying estimates of lethal vessel strikes, and they are easily transported to other regions and situations.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Absolute probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes to North Atlantic right whales in Roseway Basin, Scotian Shelf

Hoop

Vanderlaan

Taggart

2012

Ecological Applications

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“…Analyses of documented ship−whale collisions suggest that ship speed may be one of the factors. The probability of lethality becomes less common at speeds below 7.2 to 7.7 m s -1 (14 to 15 knots) and rare at speeds below 5.1 m s -1 (10 knots) (Laist et al 2001, Vanderlaan & Taggart 2007, Wiley et al 2011. Explanations of the increased lethality at higher speeds include greater impact forces with increasing ship speeds (Campbell-Malone & Barco 2008), an increase in acceleration forces as ship speeds increase (Silber et al 2010), and whale avoidance (Laist et al 2001).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simultaneous tracking of blue whales and large ships demonstrates limited behavioral responses for avoiding collision

McKenna

Calambokidis²,

Oleson³

et al. 2015

Endang. Species. Res.

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Collisions between ships and whales are reported throughout the world's oceans. For some endangered whale populations, ship strikes are a major threat to survival and recovery. Factors known to affect the incidence and severity of collisions include spatial co-occurrence of ships and whales, hydrodynamic forces around ships, and ship speed. Less understood and likely key to understanding differences in interactions between whales and ships is whale behavior in the presence of ships. In commercial shipping lanes off southern California, we simultaneously recorded blue whale behavior and commercial ship movement. A total of 20 ship passages with 9 individual whales were observed at distances ranging from 60 to 3600 m. We documented a dive response (i.e. shallow dive during surface period) of blue whales in the path of oncoming ships in 55% of the ship passages, but found no evidence for lateral avoidance. Descent rate, duration, and maximum depth of the observed response dives were similar to whale behavior immediately after suction-cup tag deployments. These behavioral data were combined with ship hydrodynamic forces to evaluate the maximum ship speed that would allow a whale time to avoid an oncoming ship. Our analysis suggests that the ability of blue whales to avoid ships is limited to relatively slow descents, with no horizontal movements away from a ship. We posit that this constrained response repertoire would limit their ability to adjust their response behavior to different ship speeds. This is likely a factor in making blue whales, and perhaps other large whales, more vulnerable to ship strikes.

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“…One of these measures requires that vessels ≥65 ft (19.8 m) reduce speeds during seasons when right whales are likely to be present in the area (NOAA 2008). Although reducing vessel speed decreases the risk of ship strike mortality (Laist et al 2001, Vanderlaan & Taggart 2007, Wiley et al 2011, Conn & Silber 2013, current mitigation efforts may not provide adequate protection due to incomplete spatial and temporal coverage of right whale habitat and occurrence (Schick et al 2009, van der Hoop et al 2013, 2015. Since the efficacy of current management protocols is uncertain, regulatory efforts require ongoing evaluation and modification (Pace 2011, van der Hoop et al 2013, 2015.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

North Atlantic right whale occurrence near wind energy areas along the mid-Atlantic US coast: implications for management

Hodge¹,

Muirhead²,

Morano³

et al. 2015

Endang. Species. Res.

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The distribution and seasonal patterns of the North Atlantic right whale, Eubalaena glacialis, inform management decisions that mitigate anthropogenic threats. Based on data from visual surveys, much of the population migrates between winter calving grounds in coastal waters adjacent to the southeast USA and summer feeding and nursery grounds adjacent to the northeast USA. However, little is known about right whale occurrence along the mid-Atlantic US migratory corridor. A better understanding of right whale occurrence in this region is needed prior to offshore wind energy development activities, which may increase mortality risks and chronic impacts on the population. We conducted an 11 mo passive acoustic survey along coastal North Carolina and Georgia near several wind energy areas to document the acoustic occurrence of right whales in the southern region of the mid-Atlantic US coast. Right whales were acoustically detected across all seasons, with peak seasonal presence occurring during autumn in the Georgia site and during winter in the North Carolina site. A secondary peak in presence also occurred during June and July in the Georgia site, when right whales were not expected to be in the area. Given the nearly year-round presence of right whales in the survey areas, these results may warrant an evaluation of current management protocols in order to provide adequate protection to the population in the face of offshore energy development activities.

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Modeling speed restrictions to mitigate lethal collisions between ships and whales in the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary, USA

Cited by 72 publications

References 17 publications

Absolute probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes to North Atlantic right whales in Roseway Basin, Scotian Shelf

Absolute probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes to North Atlantic right whales in Roseway Basin, Scotian Shelf

Simultaneous tracking of blue whales and large ships demonstrates limited behavioral responses for avoiding collision

North Atlantic right whale occurrence near wind energy areas along the mid-Atlantic US coast: implications for management

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