Modeling swine population dynamics at a finer temporal resolution

Abstract

The United States Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) uses probability surveys of hog owners to estimate quarterly hog inventories in the United States at the national and state levels. NASS also receives data from external sources. A panel of commodity experts forms the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB establishes the NASS official estimates for each quarter by taking into account survey estimates and other relevant sources of information that are available in numerical and non‐numerical form. The aim of this article is to propose an estimation method of hog inventories by combining the NASS proprietary survey results, the hog transaction data, the past ASB panel expert analyses, biological dynamics, and the inter‐inventory relationship constraints. This approach downscales the official estimates to provide monthly estimates according to well‐defined biological growth patterns. The model developed in this study provides national estimates that may inform the quarterly reports.