Modeling the COVID-19: A case study based on oil futures

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic necessitated the production of mathematical models that were able to explain and thoroughly study various aspects and features of the pandemic. In this work, we provide a well-stated mathematical model to explain and simulate the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. To test our models performance and validity , we utilize actual surveillance data from the pandemic, capturing the results of this empirical investigation. According to the results, our model is valid, since all estimates are statistically significant, and the coefficients explain the evolution of the pandemic. We also explore the presence of potential non-linear dependence between future oil prices and the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases simulated by our model.