Modeling the current and future capacity of water resources to meet water demands in the Ebro basin

Milano, Marianne; Ruelland, Denis; Dezetter, Alain; Fabre, Julie; Ardoin‐Bardin, Sandra; Servat, Éric

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.07.010

Cited by 99 publications

(81 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…Therefore, it is primordial to have knowledge on streamflow in order to better assess the quantity of existing water for multiple purposes. However, hydrological cycle has been altered by human activities and climate change [2,3]. Therefore, it is essential to account for water inflow in order to insure a correct monitor and assessment of water for multipurpose reservoir or river basin [2,3].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, hydrological cycle has been altered by human activities and climate change [2,3]. Therefore, it is essential to account for water inflow in order to insure a correct monitor and assessment of water for multipurpose reservoir or river basin [2,3]. However, a major effect of climate change is likely to be alterations in hydrologic cycles and changes in water availability [4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Future Climate Change Impacts on Streamflows of Two Main West Africa River Basins: Senegal and Gambia

et al. 2018

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This research investigated the effect of climate change on the two main river basins of Senegal in West Africa: the Senegal and Gambia River Basins. We used downscaled projected future rainfall and potential evapotranspiration based on projected temperature from six General Circulation Models (CanESM2, CNRM, CSIRO, HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5) and two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to force the GR4J model. The GR4J model was calibrated and validated using observed daily rainfall, potential evapotranspiration from observed daily temperature, and streamflow data. For the cross-validation, two periods for each river basin were considered: 1961-1982 and 1983-2004 for the Senegal River Basin at Bafing Makana, and 1969Makana, and -1985Makana, and and 1986Makana, and -2000 for the Gambia River Basin at Mako. Model efficiency is evaluated using a multi-criteria function (F agg ) which aggregates Nash and Sutcliffe criteria, cumulative volume error, and mean volume error. Alternating periods of simulation for calibration and validation were used. This process allows us to choose the parameters that best reflect the rainfall-runoff relationship. Once the model was calibrated and validated, we simulated streamflow at Bafing Makana and Mako stations in the near future at a daily scale. The characteristic flow rates were calculated to evaluate their possible evolution under the projected climate scenarios at the 2050 horizon. For the near future (2050 horizon), compared to the 1971-2000 reference period, results showed that for both river basins, multi-model ensemble predicted a decrease of annual streamflow from 8% (Senegal River Basin) to 22% (Gambia River Basin) under the RCP4.5 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the decrease is more pronounced: 16% (Senegal River Basin) and 26% (Gambia River Basin). The Gambia River Basin will be more affected by the climate change.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Climate Change Impacts on Streamflows of Two Main West Africa River Basins: Senegal and Gambia

et al. 2018

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“…The distribution of cluster groups showed in Figure 6, which shows the increment of group 3 is highly related to drought periods studied in [37]. This reduction of dam inflow in the last decades and the expected negative trend for the first half of XXI century in the study area and in other catchments of the Mediterranean basin [38] determine that the policies on water management must improve the efficiency through methods that ensure the water availability for human activity but also for maintain the ecological river flow.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 88%

The influence of climate and land-cover scenarios on dam management strategies in a high water pressure catchment in North-east Spain

Zabalza-Martínez

Vicente‐Serrano

López‐Moreno

et al. 2017

Proceedings of First International Electronic Conference on the Hydrological Cycle

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Abstract:The water management of Boadella-Darnius reservoir (NE Spain) has been analysed for the period 1971-2013 to understand the different strategies applied in the past. Streamflow has been projected under climate conditions included in the Third Report on Climate Change in Catalonia (TCCC) and under land-use change scenarios. We have simulated Darnius-Boadella reservoir inflow (2021-2050) using the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESsys) with two objectives: (i) to analyse the impact of climate and land-use changes on the water resources of the basin and (ii) to analyse the different plausible strategies of water management at mid-term period . Results reveal a clear negative trend in dam inflow (-34.7%) since it was built in 1971. The simulations obtained with RHESsys show a similar trend at mid-term (2021-2050) with -31.1% under climate and land-use change conditions. Considering the ecological minimum flow outlined by Catalan Water Agency (ACA) and the possible dam inflow decrease, different water management strategies are needed to mitigate the effects of the expected climate change.

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“…Sob essa perspectiva, Cízková et al (2013) analisaram as possíveis mudanças na Europa, incluindo escassez hí-drica no sul, enchentes no oeste, enquanto o norte poderá reduzir a quantidade de matéria orgânica no solo. Como exemplo, é possível citar o Rio Ebro, um dos mais importantes da Espanha, que vem sofrendo com um decréscimo no fluxo de água nos rios, redução das médias de precipitação, aumento das temperaturas médias e do consumo (Milano et al, 2013).…”

Section: Revisão Da Literaturaunclassified

“…Kaldellis e Kondili (2007) relatam que o aumento da demanda para consumo humano e irrigação, redução das precipitações e aumento do uso de água subterrânea têm gerado escassez em determinadas regiões na Grécia, situação essa similar à verificada na RMSP, embora a população não tenha plena informação sobre isso (Ribeiro, 2011). Essa situação tem afetado de maneira indiscriminada os mais diversos países, como China Wang, 2010); Austrália (Tapsuwan et al, 2014); Arábia Saudita (Ouda, 2014); Espanha (Milano et al, 2013); Estados Unidos (Gelcer et al, 2013); Chile (Meza, 2013;Núñez et al, 2013); Taiwan (Tsai;Elsberry, 2013), além de outras áreas na Europa e América do Norte (Hejazi et al, 2014).…”

Section: Revisão Da Literaturaunclassified

Crise de abastecimento de água em São Paulo e falta de planejamento estratégico

Côrtes

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Pinto³

et al. 2015

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Embora a crise no abastecimento de água na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo (RMSP) tenha se manifestado de maneira mais intensa no verão de 2013-2014, ela revela um problema crônico que vem afetando toda a Região nos últimos dez anos. Esse problema foi gerado pela falta de um planejamento estratégico que considere questões climatológicas que podem indicar, com meses de antecedência, problemas de recomposição dos níveis dos mananciais, permitindo que ações sejam empreendidas com razoável antecedência, reduzindo os impactos para a população. Este estudo mostra como é possível utilizar informações climáticas na gestão estratégica do sistema de abastecimento da RMSP.

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Modeling the current and future capacity of water resources to meet water demands in the Ebro basin

Cited by 99 publications

References 35 publications

Future Climate Change Impacts on Streamflows of Two Main West Africa River Basins: Senegal and Gambia

Future Climate Change Impacts on Streamflows of Two Main West Africa River Basins: Senegal and Gambia

The influence of climate and land-cover scenarios on dam management strategies in a high water pressure catchment in North-east Spain

Crise de abastecimento de água em São Paulo e falta de planejamento estratégico

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