Modeling the effect of climate on na-oogst tobacco production in Jember

Abstract

Tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum L.) makes a significant contribution to the source of farmers’ income and the provision of employment opportunities. Tobacco plants are very susceptible to being influenced by the climatology and geography of the region. Na-Oogst tobacco is specifically cultivated in East Java in the Besuki Ex-Karesiden area which includes Jember and Bondowoso regencies, its mainly used for making cigars outside (dekblad), cigar dressings (omblad), and filling cigars (filler). Tobacco plants are sensitive to environmental factors including climatic factors, such as rainfall, humidity, and temperature. The climatic conditions of rainfall, both the amount and the distribution are very diverse so that it affects the growth, production, and quality of tobacco. Based on this, this study aims to identify characteristics, analyze and determine the modeling of the influence of climate factors on tobacco productions in Jember Regency. This is very important to do to determine recommendations and policies to increase tobacco productivity. The mathematical model of the analysis on Na-Oogst tobacco production in Jember Regency is Y = -362629 + 0.1285 rainfall + 2.93 rainy days + 16630 temperature – 1377 humidity with the coefficient of determination is 76.33%.