Modeling the effect of contaminated objects for the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic with self protection behavior changes

Abstract

A mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of Coronavirus diseases (COVID-19) is proposed using a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations by incorporating self protection behavior changes in the population. The disease free equilibrium point is computed, and both the local and global stability analysis was performed. The basic reproduction number ( ) of the model is computed using the method of next generation matrix. The disease free equilibrium point is locally asymptotically and globally stable under certain conditions. Based on the available data, the unknown model parameters are estimated using a combination of least square and Bayesian estimation methods for different countries. The forward sensitivity index is applied to determine and identify the key model parameters for the spread of disease dynamics. The sensitive parameters for the spread of the virus vary from country to country. We found out that the reproduction number depends mostly on the infection rates, the threshold value of the force of infection for a population, the recovery rates, and the virus decay rate in the environment. It illustrates that control of the effective transmission rate (recommended human behavioral change towards self-protective measures) is essential to stop the spreading of the virus. Numerical simulations of the model were performed to supplement and verify the effectiveness of the analytical findings.

Modeling the effect of contaminated object, vaccination and treatment on the diseases epidemiology

“…The classical epidemiology model consists of three compartments, namely Susceptible S (t), Infected (t) and Recovered (t). The main idea for modifying the classical epidemiological models based on the transmission dynamics [5] and intervention measures like vaccination and hospitalization [9][10][11][14][15][16][17][18] . Accordingly, both of transmissions; dynamics and intervention compartments are taken into account for formulate a new epidemic model, in our new proposed model; we assume that the epidemic disease is transmitted through two dynamic ways.…”

“…Infectious Viruses are one such threat, Invisible to the human eye, they live in the air, soil, and water and on material surfaces. Therefore, the transmission of epidemic disease can occur, from infected individuals to susceptible individuals directly as well as from contaminated object to susceptible individual, in [5] the author proposed an epidemic model for the transmission dynamics of Coronavirus diseases (Covid-19) their proposed model incorporating the effect of contaminated objects on SEIR model only but effect f intervention strategy like Vaccination and hospitalization are important factor for modeling the dynamics spreading of infectious disease in humanity. Therefore, in this paper, an epidemic model is formulated for studying the effect of each of vaccination, hospitalization and contaminated object on spreading infectious.…”

Investigation of fractal-fractional order model of COVID-19 in Pakistan under Atangana-Baleanu Caputo (ABC) derivative

“…The model from which we will take our model fractal-fractional sense is given as under and can be seen in [20] where the parameter used in the above model with whole details are given below as: We will reconsider the model given in (1) by including arbitrary order derivative and fractal dimension as given as (see Table 1 , Table 2 ) …”

Dynamics of COVID-19 transmission with comorbidity: a data driven modelling based approach

“…To defeat the epidemic, the different countries of the world were in a lockdown scenario, the also successively unlock process due to socioeconomic and political impacts [ 2 – 6 ]. Moreover, the mortality and morbidity rate has varied across countries of the worlds [ 7 – 9 ]. COVID-19 is often present in human being as common symptoms, for example, cold-like illness including fever, muscle pain, fatigue, loss of taste and smell, sore throat, and dry cough [ 10 – 13 ].…”