Modeling the potential economic benefits of an oral SARS-CoV-2 vaccine during an outbreak of COVID-19

Abstract

Background Given patient preferences, the choice of delivery modality for vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 has the potential to significantly impact both health and economic consequences of an outbreak of COVID-19. This study models the projected health and economic impact of an oral COVID-19 vaccine in the United States during an outbreak occurring between December 1, 2021 and February 16, 2022. Methods A cost-of-illness economic decision analysis model is utilized to assess both the health and economic impact of an oral vaccine delivery platform compared with the status quo deployment of existing intramuscular vaccines against COVID-19. Health impact is assessed in terms of predicted cases, deaths, hospitalization days, intensive care unit admission days, and mechanical ventilation days averted. Health system economic impact is assessed based on the cost-of-illness averted derived from the average daily costs of medical care, stratified by severity. Productivity loss due to premature death is estimated based on regulatory analysis guidelines proposed by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Results Based upon preference data, we estimate that the availability of an oral COVID-19 vaccine would increase vaccine uptake from 214 million people to 232 million people. This higher vaccination rate was estimated to result in 2,497,087 fewer infections, 25,709 fewer deaths, 1,365,497 fewer hospitalization days, 186,714 fewer Intensive Care Unit (ICU) days, and 80,814 fewer patient days requiring mechanical ventilation (MV) compared with the status quo. From a health systems perspective, this translates into $3.3 billion in health sector costs averted. An additional $139-$450 billion could have been averted in productivity loss due to a reduction in premature deaths. Conclusions Vaccine delivery modalities that are aligned with patient preferences have the ability to increase vaccination uptake and reduce both the health and economic impact of an outbreak of COVID-19. We estimate that the total economic impact of productivity loss and health systems cost-of-illness averted from an oral vaccine could range from 0.6%-2.9% of 2021 U.S, Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Perspective Chapter: The Most Natural Possible Vaccine Administered in the Most Natural Possible Way – Noninvasive over Injectable Vaccine Delivery Routes

“…The numerous advantages of oral vaccines over needle-based vaccines include their safety, comfort, convenience, lower production cost, efficient administration, and the generation of minimum disposables. Compared with injectable vaccines, oral vaccine pills can be safely self-administered, reduce the number of hospital visits and the need for specialized training of healthcare providers, activate mucosal-as well as systemic cell-mediated immunity, have greater acceptance and customer compliance rates, have increased shelf-life stability, minimize greenhouse gas emissions, and minimize overall vaccine-related healthcare costs [2,[55][56][57][58][59][60][61][62]…”

“…Enhanced stability and shelf life. Oral-pill vaccines offer greater resilience to environmental conditions, have zero or minimal cold chain requirements, minimize greenhouse gas emissions, present a huge reduction in healthcare costs, and are associated with longer storage shelf life [60][61][62].…”

Economic Evaluation of Covid-19 Vaccines: A Literature Review

“…Policy intervention in epidemic prevention and control of COVID-19 needs to explore further the most cost-effective vaccination strategy in the actual scene. At the same time, governments and healthcare departments must introduce diversified measures, such as promoting the R&D of oral COVID-19 vaccines and reducing unnecessary lockdowns (Fu et al 2022a;Patenaude and Ballreich 2022). Better in this way can promote economic development and sustainable health system operation and more effectively safeguard social health.…”