Modeling the spatial distribution of marker species of ground beetles based on GIS technologies

Abstract

Climate change and related changes in natural ecosystems are the most important international issues of the twenty-first century. In this regard, modeling the dynamics of plant and animal habitats based on the analysis of their relationships with climate parameters and environmental characteristics becomes an urgent task. Modeling the geographical distribution of species is not possible without geoinformation analysis, which allows you to identify both the boundaries of factors that affect the distribution of the species, and the features of its range. The paper presents the author’s addition to the existing method of ecological and geographical modeling based on GIS technologies that allow to visualize the dynamics of areas in a certain period of time and in connection with changes in bioclimatic parameters. Modeling the spatial distribution of two marker species of ground beetles makes it possible to extrapolate fragmentary data on specific locations over large territories. The created geoinformation models of the predicted areas revealed their changes for different climate scenarios for 2050 and 2070. Based on ecological and geoinformation modeling, it was found that the formation of the modern range of Zabrus tenebrioides is significantly influenced by the average daily temperature amplitude for each month, the maximum temperature of the warmest month and the minimum temperature of the coldest month. The distribution of Pterostichus oblongopunctatus is influenced by the average annual temperature, the average daily temperature amplitude for each month, and the average temperature of the driest quarter; the average temperature of the warmest quarter of the year and the amount of precipitation in the driest month of the year. The geoinformation analysis made it possible to identify the dependence of the number of points of species finds and the values of bioclimatic factors. Maps and graphs of the range of species comfort were created. The main trends of changes in the range of Pterostichus oblongopunctatus under changing climate conditions in the “soft” and “hard” scenarios are revealed. Under the influence of climate change, the area of habitats is reduced and their structure is changed.