Modeling the Transmission Dynamics of Clonorchiasis in Foshan, China

Abstract

Clonorchiasis, known as the Chinese liver fluke disease, is caused by Clonorchis sinensis infection with food-borne liver fluke, which is transmitted via snails to freshwater fish and then to human beings or other piscivorous mammals. Clonorchis sinensis infection is mainly related to liver and biliary disorders, especially cholangiocarcinoma, and has an increased human-health impact due to the greater consumption of raw freshwater fish. In this article, we propose a deterministic model to describe the spread of clonorchiasis among human-snail-fish populations and use the model to simulate the data on the numbers of inspected and infected individuals of Foshan City, located in Guangdong Province in the southeast of P.R China, from 1980–2010. Mathematical and numerical analyses of the model are carried out to understand the transmission dynamics of clonorchiasis and explore effective control measures for the local outbreaks of the disease. We find that (i) the transmission of clonorchiasis from cercariae to fish plays a more important role than that from eggs to snails and from fish to humans; (ii) As the cycle of infection-treatment-reinfection continues, it is unlikely that treatment with drugs alone can control and eventually eradicate clonorchiasis. These strongly suggest that a more comprehensive approach needs to include environmental modification in order to break the cercariae-fish transmission cycle, to enhance awareness about the disease, and to improve prevention measures.

Association between eosinophil count and cholelithiasis among a population with Clonorchis sinensis infection in Foshan City, China

“…In China, Guangdong Province is the most infected province, followed by Guangxi, Heilongjiang and Jilin Province (Chen et al ., 2012). Foshan, as the third largest city in the Pearl River Delta of Guangdong Province, is a severe epidemic area of C. sinensis (Yuan et al ., 2018).…”

Assessment of control strategies against Clonorchis sinensis infection based on a multi-group dynamic transmission model

“…The authors also verified the globally asymptotically stable of the model in both disease-free and endemic equilibria [20]. Yuan and colleagues applied a deterministic SEIR and a SIR model to describe the spread of clonorchiasis in Foshan and Guangzhou, China, respectively [21,22]. Compared to Dai's model, the models developed by Yuan included recovered population as well as different status (e.g., eggs and cercariae) of the parasite.…”

Evidence-based modeling of combination control on Kenyan youth HIV/AIDS dynamics

“…The minimum value of sum of squares due to error that is closer to 0 implies that the model has a smaller random error component and the resulting fit can be used for prediction [57]. This approach of fitting has also been used successfully elsewhere [58][59][60]. The higher the minimum value of SSE, the greater the variation from the prevalence data.…”