Modelling efforts needed to advance herpes simplex virus (HSV) vaccine development: Key findings from the World Health Organization Consultation on HSV Vaccine Impact Modelling

Gottlieb, Sami L.; Giersing, Birgitte; Boily, Marie‐Claude; Chesson, Harrell W.; Looker, Katharine J; Schiffer, Joshua T.; Spicknall, Ian H.; Hutubessy, Raymond; Broutet, Nathalie

doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2017.03.074

Cited by 46 publications

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“…Case reporting may not be reliable because many symptomatic individuals do not seek care and remain undiagnosed,18 and GUD may not be recognised as herpetic by clinicians, since although HSV is the most common cause of GUD globally GUD can have other causes 19–26. A more complete understanding of the morbidity associated with HSV infection, and in particular GUD, would help elucidate the full potential public health value of HSV interventions 27. Here we present the first global and regional estimates of GUD due to HSV-1 and HSV-2 among women and men aged 15–49 years old using a natural history model reflecting the clinical course of GUD following HSV-2 and genital HSV-1 infection with existing HSV-2 and genital HSV-1 infection estimates for 2016 2…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The global and regional burden of genital ulcer disease due to herpes simplex virus: a natural history modelling study

et al. 2020

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IntroductionHerpes simplex virus (HSV) infection can cause painful, recurrent genital ulcer disease (GUD), which can have a substantial impact on sexual and reproductive health. HSV-related GUD is most often due to HSV type 2 (HSV-2), but may also be due to genital HSV type 1 (HSV-1), which has less frequent recurrent episodes than HSV-2. The global burden of GUD has never been quantified. Here we present the first global and regional estimates of GUD due to HSV-1 and HSV-2 among women and men aged 15–49 years old.MethodsWe developed a natural history model reflecting the clinical course of GUD following HSV-2 and genital HSV-1 infection, informed by a literature search for data on model parameters. We considered both diagnosed and undiagnosed symptomatic infection. This model was then applied to existing infection estimates and population sizes for 2016. A sensitivity analysis was carried out varying the assumptions made.ResultsWe estimated that 187 million people aged 15–49 years had at least one episode of HSV-related GUD globally in 2016: 5.0% of the world’s population. Of these, 178 million (95% of those with HSV-related GUD) had HSV-2 compared with 9 million (5%) with HSV-1. GUD burden was highest in Africa, and approximately double in women compared with men. Altogether there were an estimated 8 billion person-days spent with HSV-related GUD globally in 2016, with 99% of days due to HSV-2. Taking into account parameter uncertainty, the percentage with at least one episode of HSV-related GUD ranged from 3.2% to 7.9% (120–296 million). However, the estimates were sensitive to the model assumptions.ConclusionOur study represents a first attempt to quantify the global burden of HSV-related GUD, which is large. New interventions such as HSV vaccines, antivirals or microbicides have the potential to improve the quality of life of millions of people worldwide.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The global and regional burden of genital ulcer disease due to herpes simplex virus: a natural history modelling study

et al. 2020

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“…(which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. effectiveness [21,28,29,31,32]. Once key attributes are established, modeling plays an integral role in building the case for investment in vaccine development, and in ensuring rapid roll-out post-licensing, through assessment of risks, costs, and predicted returns associated with different immunization strategies [29,33].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiological impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination: mathematical modeling analyses

Makhoul

Ayoub

Chemaitelly

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Lebanon * These authors contributed equally to the work. Word count: Abstract: 257 words, Main Text: 3,166 words. Number of figures: 7. Number of tables: 1. Running head: SARS-CoV-2 vaccination impact. Abstract Background: Several SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates are currently in the pipeline. This study aims to inform SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development, licensure, decision-making, and implementation by determining key preferred vaccine product characteristics and associated population-level impact. Methods: Vaccination impact was assessed at various efficacies using an age-structured mathematical model describing SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease progression, with application for China. Results: A prophylactic vaccine with efficacy against acquisition ( S VE ) of ≥70% is needed to eliminate this infection. A vaccine with S VE <70% will still have a major impact, and may control the infection if it reduces infectiousness or infection duration among those vaccinated who acquire the infection, or alternatively if supplemented with a moderate social-distancing intervention (<20% reduction in contact rate), or complemented with herd immunity. Vaccination is cost-effective. For a vaccine with S VE of 50%, number of vaccinations needed to avert one infection is only 2.4, one severe disease case is 25.5, one critical disease case is 33.2, and one death is 65.1. Gains in effectiveness are achieved by initially prioritizing those ≥60 years. Probability of a major outbreak is virtually zero with a vaccine with S VE ≥70%, regardless of number of virus introductions. Yet, an increase in social contact rate among those vaccinated (behavior compensation) can undermine vaccine impact. Conclusions: Even a partially-efficacious vaccine can offer a fundamental solution to control SARS-CoV-2 infection and at high cost-effectiveness. In addition to the primary endpoint on infection acquisition, developers should assess natural history and disease progression outcomes All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.

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“…2,4 Development of an HSV-1 vaccine is a focus of ongoing international multi-sectorial effort, led in part by the World Health Organization (WHO). 5,6 Mounting evidence from Western countries, 2,[7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14] Asia, 15 and Latin America and the Caribbean 16 suggests that HSV-1 is increasingly acquired genitally, and less so orally. Indeed, in several countries, HSV-1 is already the primary cause of genital herpes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Herpes simplex virus type 1 epidemiology in Africa: Systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions

Harfouche

Chemaitelly

Abu‐Raddad

2019

Journal of Infection

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Objective: To assess herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) epidemiology in Africa. Methods: This systematic review was conducted per the Cochrane Collaboration guidelines. Findings were reported following the PRISMA guidelines. Research questions were addressed using random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions. Results: Forty-three overall (and 69 stratified) HSV-1 seroprevalence measures, and 18 and eight proportions of HSV-1 viral detection in genital ulcer disease (GUD) and in genital herpes, respectively, were extracted from 37 reports. Pooled mean seroprevalence was 67.1% (95% confidence interval (CI): 54.7-78.5%) in children, and 96.2% (95% CI: 95.0-97.3%) in adults. Across age groups, pooled mean was 44.4% (95% CI: 29.9-59.3%) in ≤5 years-old, 85.6% (95% CI: 81.0-89.6%) in 6-15 years-old, 93.3% (95% CI: 89.2-96.6%) in 16-25 years-old, and 93.8% (95% CI: 84.6-99.4%) in > 25 years-old. Age explained 78.8% of seroprevalence variation. Pooled mean proportion of HSV-1 detection was 0.4% (95% CI: 0.0-1.5%) in GUD, and 1.2% (95% CI: 0.0-4.0%) in genital herpes. Conclusions: HSV-1 is universally prevalent in Africa, at higher levels than other regions, with no evidence for declines in seroprevalence in recent decades. Nearly every person acquires the infection in childhood through oral-to-oral transmission, before sexual debut. Sexual oral-to-genital and genital-to-genital transmission appear very limited.

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Modelling efforts needed to advance herpes simplex virus (HSV) vaccine development: Key findings from the World Health Organization Consultation on HSV Vaccine Impact Modelling

Cited by 46 publications

References 48 publications

The global and regional burden of genital ulcer disease due to herpes simplex virus: a natural history modelling study

The global and regional burden of genital ulcer disease due to herpes simplex virus: a natural history modelling study

Epidemiological impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination: mathematical modeling analyses

Herpes simplex virus type 1 epidemiology in Africa: Systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions

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